Florida, Oregon, Mississippi State Emerge as Top CFP Contenders After Season Start

Florida and Mississippi State have given oddsmakers plenty to think about after the first month of college football . The Gators have surged into the national championship conversation after opening SEC play with wins over Auburn and Ole Miss , while Jeff Lebby's Bulldogs are climbing, too, turning a promising start into a case that Mississippi State belongs among the league's contenders.

Both were long shots entering the season, but their title odds now reflect what they've shown on the field.

Oregon offers a different lesson from the updated board. The Ducks' loss at Oklahoma State raised questions about their College Football Playoff path, but the experts haven't written them off after Saturday's win over USC .

There's plenty of season left, and the market for national championship contenders looks a bit different than it did in August.

All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook .

Ohio State Buckeyes (+470)

The CFP title frontrunner after college football's opening four weeks of the season, Jeremiah Smith's dominance and three quarters of elite play at Texas has convinced the oddsmakers the Buckeyes are the team to beat. While it's hard to disagree, the remaining schedule is brutal, with four games left against top-15 Big Ten teams, and Matt Patricia's defense is not what it was last season up to this point.

Texas Longhorns (+550)

Battle-tested and hungry, the Longhorns keep finding ways to win against elite competition. You'd be hard-pressed to find two better victories than what Texas put together during the first month against Ohio State and Saturday's win in Knoxville. Texas collected 10 sacks, including five from Colin Simmons , over the weekend and strangled the Vols before needing a stop in the final seconds. Arch Manning hasn't been elite as a passer, but he's 4-0 and has shown grit.

Georgia Bulldogs (+550)

Perhaps the most undervalued elite with these current odds, the Bulldogs are doing what they do best under Kirby Smart — not playing with their food while refusing to look sexy doing it. The SEC's most physical team pounded Oklahoma at the line of scrimmage over the weekend and got after John Mateer , forcing multiple mistakes that led to points. The SEC favorites have four games left against ranked teams, including a trip to Alabama on Oct. 10.

> Talynted Taylor 🤯 pic.twitter.com/50Gm8ZiQXj — Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) September 27, 2026

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+600)

We'll know more about Marcus Freeman's team after their showdown at BYU in mid-October, but they've checked all the early, necessary boxes we assumed coming into the campaign — the Irish are dominant at the point of attack and have a quarterback who can execute the offense. A weak schedule may not help this team in the postseason when they're taking body blows against top-10 competition, but the upcoming bouts with BYU and Miami will be true tests.

Miami Hurricanes (+700)

Harping on Miami's easy, early-season schedule is missing the point — the Hurricanes have looked the part. Darian Mensah is the perfect fit in Shannon Dawson's offense as a precision passer, while Malachi Toney has eviscerated every secondary he has come in contact with as a sophomore. Worries about new starters in the trenches have evaporated, too. The runaway favorite in the ACC, no other league squad has this level of firepower at all positions.

Indiana Hoosiers (+1000)

Is Curt Cignetti's squad leaking oil despite winning 20 straight games dating back to last season? Any ounce of doubt he could toss inside his locker room for motivational purposes is wanted at this junction. The Hoosiers aren't nearly as explosive offensively through four games, and are now dealing with a high ankle sprain to lead running back Turbo Richard . Every week is a grind in the Big Ten, and Indiana knows it's going to get every team's best shot. That said, title odds at +1000 right now to repeat appear warranted.

LSU Tigers (+1600)

If there's a potential three-loss team from the SEC capable of getting into the 12-team bracket and winning multiple games, it's Lane Kiffin's Tigers. However, injuries are beginning to take a toll after piling up Saturday night during the win over Texas A&M . It was an ideal bounce-back effort following LSU 's loss at Ole Miss in Week 3, but it came with a price.

Florida Gators (+1800)

The Gators were +3300 last week after beating Auburn and made another big jump following the blowout victory over Ole Miss. No team has made more noise nationally under a first-year coach, and the mission's not done yet, according to Jon Sumrall. Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark each eclipsed 100 yards rushing against the Rebels, and transfer quarterback Aaron Philo is exactly what the Gators assumed they had in him when they signed Buster Faulkner to call plays. That pairing has been flawless this season.

> Humble and hungry. @CoachJonSumrall 🎙️ pic.twitter.com/NgcwxDO3w6 — Florida Gators Football (@GatorsFB) September 28, 2026

Alabama Crimson Tide (+2000)

If you're a believer in what Keelon Russell has cooking this season with the Crimson Tide, this is high value entering Week 5. He looks like he's improving with every start as a sophomore and launched his Heisman campaign over the weekend during Alabama's dismantling of South Carolina . Alabama's defense isn't where we thought it would be, but when you're scoring points with this much fireworks, there's no need to be perfect.

Oregon Ducks (+2200)

This is why Dan Lanning and the Ducks invested considerable money into their backup quarterback this season. Dylan Raiola led four touchdown drives in the second half of Saturday's win at USC, 2.5 quarters of stellar play following an injury to Dante Moore . Oregon's odds improved from +2500 to +2200 after the 1-0 start in Big Ten play.

Ole Miss Rebels (+2500)

Anything can happen when you possess the top quarterback in the country, but unless this Ole Miss defense starts to tackle with more efficiency and performs better against the run, value begins to deteriorate as a CFP title contender. The Rebels entered last weekend last in the SEC in run defense and got clobbered by a pair of Florida's stud running backs. That's too much pressure to score every possession on Trinidad Chambliss , who was the focus of Florida's defensive game plan with Kewan Lacy on the mend.

Tennessee Volunteers (+4000)

Growing pains are going to happen for a freshman quarterback, and Faizon Brandon found out the hard way against Texas after being tossed to the ground more often than he was kept upright. Give the Vols credit for clawing their way back in the game late despite a frustrating effort offensively. Continuing to feed Desean Bishop is the plan moving forward as one of the SEC's mid-tier teams.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+4500)

If there's an unbeaten team that has failed the eye test this season, it's the Red Raiders. The offense is a mess with more self-inflicted mistakes than big plays thus far, and the mass offseason exodus on defense to the NFL jumps out on film. Surprisingly, Texas Tech still has better odds than unbeaten BYU to win the Big 12 and get to the CFP, but this is a team whose bubble could burst quickly in October.

Mississippi State Bulldogs (+7500)

After beating nationally ranked Missouri with a fourth-quarter turnaround, Mississippi State's odds moved from a collection of teams with 10-1 odds to +7500 thanks to the emergence of Heisman candidate Kamario Taylor at quarterback. Mississippi State remains a long shot to get to the CFP and plays the second of a five-game stretch against top-25 competition this weekend against Alabama. If the Bulldogs win, this +7500 number improves substantially.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-national-championship-odds-cfp-florida-oregon-mississippi-state/)._