Kawhi Leonard's Raptors Return: Three Key Concerns, Including Scottie Barnes Fit

Kawhi Leonard officially became a member of the Toronto Raptors last week, and now he's signed up through the 2028-29 season (with the final year being a player option) as he and the Raptors agreed to a two-year, $115 million extension on Tuesday, according to ESPN. Leonard will play out his current contract this season at $50 million before beginning the new deal in 2027.

It's mostly good news for both Leonard, who can put this cap circumvention scandal behind him as he returns to the team with which he achieved his greatest individual glory, and the Raptors, who needed a move like this to solidify their standing in a suddenly stacked Eastern Conference.

On paper, the Raptors should be considered among the many legitimate East contenders. They just won 46 games and took the Cleveland Cavaliers to seven games in the first round of the playoffs on the strength of a top-five defense that created a league-high 22 turnovers per game. That fueled a transition attack that produced more points per game (28.6) than all but two teams (the Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls ). And now Leonard, a much sharper isolation and pick-and-roll weapon than Scottie Barnes , can provide the alpha half-court chops that every true contender requires.

Kawhi Leonard contract breakdown: What $115 million extension means as Raptors try to compete in loaded East Sam Quinn

Brandon Ingram was supposed to fill that role, particularly late in games. For the most part, he did his job by averaging 21.5 points per game and making the All-Star team. But ultimately, his methodical DNA was a wonky fit on a team that wants to play fast and free. Toronto was nine points worse per 100 possessions when Ingram was on the floor last season, per Cleaning the Glass, and he was totally exposed in the playoffs.

Flipping Ingram for Leonard levels this team up considerably. In slotting Barnes, a rapidly ascending star in his own right, into the jack-of-all-trades Scottie Pippen role for which he is most naturally suited, it pairs a true superstar with an All-NBA No. 2, creating what should be a beautiful blend of youth, experience and elite depth.

That said, this marriage does not come without real concerns. Let's look at three of them in particular.

1. Can Leonard stay healthy?

This is the most obvious concern and it comes before all else. If Leonard cannot stay on the court consistently, nothing else matters. The good news for the Raptors is that last year with the Los Angeles Clippers , Leonard had the healthiest and arguably best regular season of his career. We're talking about just under 28-6-4 on almost 50-40-90 shooting over 65 games. He has played in at least 65 games in two of the last three seasons.

Kawhi Leonard TOR • SF

PPG 27.9 APG 3.6 SPG 1.86 3P/G 2.646 View Profile

The bad news is that after playing in 68 games in 2023-24, he tore his ACL in the playoffs. So even when it's going good, it's always a cross-your-fingers situation. All told, Leonard managed to play in under 60% of his regular-season games with the Clippers. He missed 15 of a possible 50 playoff games and missed 119 games over a two-season period (not concurrent) with separate knee ailments.

If he's on the floor, he remains one of the best players in the league. But that is always going to be a gigantic if.

2. The Barnes-Leonard overlap

Last season, Barnes attempted just under eight shots per game between five and 19 feet, per NBA.com tracking. Leonard attempted just over eight per game within that same range. Drilling deeper, 31% of Barnes' shot diet came from the short midrange (4-14 feet), per Cleaning the Glass. For Leonard, it was 32%. Barnes gets to the rim more, Leonard takes more 3s and makes them at a much higher clip. But generally speaking, these two take a lot of shots from the same spots.

Scottie Barnes TOR • PF • #4

PPG 18.1 APG 5.9 SPG 1.43 3P/G .85 View Profile

This doesn't necessarily have to be a problem. Raptors coach Darko Rajakovic can and likely will stagger their minutes, and Leonard can continue to increase his 3-point volume (last year he took a career-high 6.8 per game), which would be welcomed by an offense that finished bottom-five in both 3-point attempts and makes last season.

Still, there could be some potential for overcrowding these scoring zones, especially when you factor in this next guy.

3. Where does RJ Barrett fit?

Barrett has been a very solid player in Toronto. He's been a consistent 20-point scorer. Last season, he finished with a career high 58.5 true-shooting percentage. In a perfect world, he's able to replicate that production with lower usage despite also doing a lot of work from the scoring zones Barnes and Leonard frequent (he loves to get into the runner range).

But there's another way this can go, where Barrett's hard-line drives are fewer and farther between and he isn't able to effectively space the floor from 3 -- where he has connected at just a 34 and 35% clip the last two years, respectively.

He hovers around league average in terms of catch-and-shoot efficiency, but if you want to be optimistic you can point to his 38% 3-point clip on wide-open 3s (defined as the nearest defender being at least six feet away), per NBA tracking, and his 42% mark on "unguarded" 3-pointers last season, per Synergy.

RJ Barrett TOR • SG • #9

PPG 19.3 RPG 5.3 3P/G 1.684 View Profile

In theory, Leonard's gravity should create more of these open looks than Ingram's did, but Barrett will still need to take even greater advantage of transition possessions to get downhill as his spot in the half-court hierarchy will likely drop some.

I'm a Barrett believer. I want to think he can adapt. And you need a third scorer in today's game. Last season, the Raptors had three players average over 18 points per game (Ingram, Barrett and Barnes). Leonard should outpace Ingram's 21.5 points per game, and Barnes should crest the 20 points per game mark. That could allow Barrett to drop to an average of around 15 points. But remember, we're looking for more scoring from a team that ranked in the bottom 10 in points per game last season.

Also, all of this is against the backdrop of Barrett entering the final season of his current contract. He's due $29.6 million this year, and is surely going to want something in that annual neighborhood moving forward, though he's probably unlikely to get it from Toronto -- which already has almost $330 million earmarked for Leonard, Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Immanuel Quickley through 2029. Jamal Shead , also expiring after this season, will need a new contract, too.

It begs the question: Will the Raptors look to trade Barrett before the February deadline rather than risk losing him for nothing next summer? It's definitely possible. They'll likely give it a few months to see how well he functions alongside Leonard and Barnes, but he could potentially end up being an odd man out here.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/kawhi-leonard-raptors-concerns-scottie-barnes-rj-barrett/)._