Mariners Face Pivotal Offseason After Disappointing 2026 Campaign

The New York Mets give them a run for the title , but for my money, the Seattle Mariners are the most disappointing team in baseball this year. The Mets crashed hard last year and I could envision how things could go sideways coming into this season. The Mariners, though? They were supposed to be one of baseball's very best teams after pushing the Toronto Blue Jays to Game 7 of the ALCS last year.

Instead, the Mariners are on pace for their worst record in a full season since losing 94 games in 2019, and they were officially eliminated from postseason contention on Thursday, thanks to a Rangers win over those very same Mets. A team with a losing record might win the AL West . The third AL wild-card team won't be much better than .500. Missing the postseason under these circumstances is a colossal failure.

The reasons for that colossal failure are numerous. Basically everyone other than Randy Arozarena and Dominic Canzone fell below expectations offensively, if not way below expectations. A rotation that, on paper, is one of the best in the game was merely middle of the pack. The bullpen was too often shaky. The defense was baseball's worst by Statcast's outs above average.

The foundation of a contending team is in place. The Mariners have what should be a very strong up-the-middle homegrown core ( Colt Emerson , Cal Raleigh , Julio Rodríguez , Cole Young ) and six quality starters for five rotation spots ( Kade Anderson , Logan Gilbert , Emerson Hancock , George Kirby , Bryce Miller , Bryan Woo ). Building that foundation is the hard part.

Now the Mariners must do what they failed to do in 2026. They have to help those players (particularly the position players) take that next step and level up their games, and improve the roster around them. Other than the Arozarena trade, the attempts to improve the rest of the roster have frankly underwhelmed over the last few years. Here are three questions facing the Mariners this winter.

1. Will Dipoto and Wilson return?

Rarely is the status quo maintained after a season this disappointing. President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and manager Dan Wilson (and the rest of the coaching staff) should not be considered safe. This is Dipoto's 11th season as Seattle's top baseball operations executive and the Mariners have been to the postseason just twice in those 11 years.

So much of a manager's job happens behind the scenes, but in terms of the on-field stuff we can see, Wilson has not stood out at all in his two and a half seasons at the helm. You learn most about your manager during the bad times and Wilson did not distinguish himself with his on-field strategy these last few weeks. He was part of the problem, not the solution.

The manager is always the easy scapegoat and, even after the team's success a year ago, moving on from Wilson after this season would not be unjustified. In fact, he is "unlikely" to return, according to the Seattle Times , though no official moves have been made yet. Dipoto's situation is harder to grapple with. He's built a strong foundation for his team, but it is a results-based business, and surely these are not the results anyone had in mind 11 seasons into his front office reign.

The Dipoto and Wilson situations should be resolved soon. If changes are made, they should be announced soon after the regular season ends, if not during the season's final days, and searches for replacements should begin immediately. After this season, it is not unfair to call Dipoto's and Wilson's job security into question. That's just the way it goes.

2. Can the rotation return to its previous heights?

What's remarkable about this season is that the Mariners enjoyed tremendous rotation health. Miller missed the first seven weeks of the season with an oblique strain, and Hancock has been out with a groin strain since Aug. 29 and seems unlikely to return this week. Otherwise, that's it. No other rotation injuries. One oblique injury, one groin injury, and nothing else.

To further drive home the point, Seattle has used an MLB-low seven starting pitchers in 2026: Anderson, Gilbert, Hancock, Kirby, Miller, Woo, and Luis Castillo , who was salary dumped on the Chicago White Sox at the trade deadline. If you'd have told me before the season that the Mariners would enjoy this level of rotation health, I would have assumed they'd win 100 games.

The Gilbert, Kirby, Miller, and Woo quartet has been in place since 2023 and, not coincidentally, the Mariners had one of baseball's best rotations in 2023 and 2024. The last two years, though, it has fallen to middle of the pack. Here are the rotation's ranks:

IP ERA FIP xERA WAR

2023

1st

4th

3rd

5th

5th

2024

1st

1st

3rd

1st

4th

2025

4th

13th

11th

9th

14th

2026

1st

10th

10th

7th

9th

The Mariners still get a lot of innings from their rotation and that's not nothing, but the quality of those innings has declined from top five in baseball to more middle of the pack according to both traditional stats (ERA) and advanced metrics (Fielding Independent Pitching, expected ERA, etc.). This is a pitching-first team and the pitching is now good, not great.

Kirby and Woo took steps back this year, while Miller was so good early on and so bad these last few weeks. Gilbert is Seattle's rock. He is their best and most consistent starter from one start to the next and one year to the next. He's also one year away from free agency. Extension talks last offseason didn't lead anywhere , but I would expect the Mariners to try again this winter.

Jesús Luzardo's five-year, $135 million extension with the Philadelphia Phillies serves as a nice guidepost for a Gilbert extension. Luzardo signed it when he was a year away from free agency, like Gilbert. What the years and dollars look like is immaterial right now. The bigger question is if the Mariners get an extension done. If not, what happens next?

Keeping Gilbert in 2027, trying to contend with him, and walking him right into free agency is one option and not a bad one. The Mariners would have to consider a trade too. The front office, whether it's Dipoto or his replacement, wouldn't be doing its job if it didn't at least explore the trade market for Gilbert if they're unable to lock him up to an extension.

Gilbert's future is a conversation for the offseason. Right now, the Mariners have to figure out why this enviable homegrown rotation has taken a step back from elite to middle of the pack, and how they can reverse that trend. Dipoto built this team around that rotation. They can contend if it's not elite, but it ups the difficulty level significantly.

3. Will the core hitters live up to their potential?

To put it another way, will Rodríguez rebound from a down season and make the leap from above-average to MVP caliber? His defense took a pretty big step back this season, putting more pressure on his bat. Julio is hardly the only culprit in the Mariners' disappointing season, but he is the franchise player, and league-average offense and below-average defense isn't enough.

A late-season swing change has helped Raleigh surge over the last few weeks , allowing him to head into the offseason feeling good about things rather than searching for answers. Josh Naylor returned on a five-year, $92.5 million contract and lost 100 points of slugging percentage. He's suddenly a stolen base guy, not a power guy, and the Mariners need Naylor to provide power.

This, right here, is the single biggest reason the Mariners went from 90 wins and an ALCS trip last year to no postseason this year (this includes Naylor's time with Seattle in 2025 only):

AVG/OBP/SLG HR WAR

Naylor, Raleigh, Rodríguez in 2025

.263/.341/.524

101

16.6

Naylor, Raleigh, Rodríguez in 2026

.236/.308/.377

54

5.4

No one reasonably expected Raleigh to hit 60 home runs again, but he was a 117 OPS+ guy from 2022-24, which is excellent for a catcher. He's down at a 93 OPS+ this year. Are the Mariners in the postseason if Raleigh produces like his 2022-24 self rather than this 2026 version? Maybe. Naylor and Rodríguez certainly share the blame too. They've underwhelmed.

Arozarena will be a free agent after the season. As good as he's been this year, his age (32 in February) and defense (poor) are reasons to give him a pat on the behind and say thank you, and let some other team pay for his decline years. Letting Arozarena leave would be a reasonable baseball decision that would nonetheless see a lot of offense walk out the door.

The Mariners must improve their offense this winter, with the corner outfield spots the obvious place to do it. More than anything, though, they need the players they've already committed to -- Naylor, Raleigh, and Rodríguez are all signed through at least 2029 -- to pull their weight. It will be awfully difficult to contend if 2026 is their new norm.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/whats-next-for-mariners-disappointing-2026/)._