MLB Playoff Preview: World Series Odds, MVP Predictions, and Team Projections

After a thrilling conclusion to the regular season, the 2026 MLB playoff field is set!

Will Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers pull off a historic three-peat? Is this the year the Milwaukee Brewers or Tampa Bay Rays finally win it all as No. 1 seeds? Will the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox go from a wild-card meeting to the World Series? And whom should you root for in this year's field?

MLB experts Jorge Castillo, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Jeff Passan and David Schoenfield get you ready with odds for every round, why every team could win it all -- or go home early -- and a name to watch for from all 12 World Series hopefuls.

Note: Doolittle's World Series and matchup odds come from a formula that uses power ratings as the basis for 10,000 simulations to determine the most likely outcomes. Team temperatures are based on Bill James' formula for determining how "hot" or "cold" a team is at any given point; the average is 72°.

Jump to a team:

TB | CLE | HOU | NYY | BOS | CHW

MIL | LAD | ATL | SD | CHC | PHI

Key links: Bracket | Schedule & more

No. 1 seed | 98-64 | AL East champs

ALDS opponent: Yankees (44.9% chance of advancing) or Red Sox (52.3%)

Doolittle's WS odds: 13.3% | DraftKings odds: +800

Team temperature : 84°

Why they can win the World Series: They do almost nothing poorly. No team strikes out as infrequently as the Rays (18.7% of plate appearances). They're hitting an MLB-best .283 with runners in scoring position. They turn batted balls into outs as well as anyone. They lead the AL in stolen bases. Drew Rasmussen is a legitimate frontline starter, and Nick Martinez and a resurgent Freddy Peralta backing him speaks to their rotation depth. Their bullpen is a grab-bag of fun options, from Kevin Kelly 's sinker to Ian Seymour 's slider to Bryan Baker 's changeup to Cam Booser 's fastball. -- Passan

If they win it all, the 2026 World Series MVP will be: World Series MVPs are just as often complementary players as stars. Junior Caminero would be the obvious choice here, but there's also the possibility that teams will pitch around him and make the next batter beat them. That's usually Liam Hicks , a trade deadline pickup from the Marlins, and he's a really good hitter (one of five regulars with more walks than strikeouts) and the kind of high-contact player who often comes up big in October. He'll have RBI opportunities to be a star. -- Schoenfield

If they go home early, it will be because their big three hitters don't produce. The Rays finished the season tied for 11th in the majors in runs scored and tied for fifth in wRC+. They can wreak havoc with their speed and athleticism, which generated the second-most steals in the majors. But home runs are necessary to advance in October, when stringing together hits against the best pitching staffs is difficult, and Tampa Bay doesn't have a lot of power threats. Caminero (42), first baseman Jonathan Aranda (22), and designated hitter Yandy Diaz (22) combined to hit more than half of the Rays' 168 home runs. They'll need to fuel the offense against elite hurlers for Tampa Bay to reach its first World Series since 2020. -- Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: The last time Caminero appeared in the playoffs, it was January 2025, in his native Dominican Republic, during Game 7 of the LIDOM championship. Caminero hit a ninth-inning, go-ahead home run, a 454-foot blast to straightaway center field, and then had the most epic trot around the bases . It was obvious then that Caminero is a superstar who lives for the big moments. He has since put together back-to-back All-Star seasons, the last of which might make him the American League MVP, and now we'll see what he can do on MLB's playoff stage. Yes, Caminero, 23, made a brief appearance in the 2023 wild-card round, but he's a different player now. -- Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Whatever facet of offense you most appreciate, the Rays have it to offer. No team puts the ball in play more often. No team is as aggressive in stealing bases. It's not a pure speed-based offense because no team with Caminero could be. At the same time, no team with Chandler Simpson could be a pure power-based team. To illustrate the diversity of the Rays' attack, consider this extreme: Caminero is one of just 12 players to hit at least 90 homers by age 22. Meanwhile, Simpson is the first player since Elvin Andrus in 2010 to roll up more than 600 plate appearances without going deep. -- Doolittle

No. 2 seed | 85-77 | AL Central champs

ALDS opponent: Astros (60.1% chance of advancing) or White Sox (57.4%)

Doolittle's WS odds: 8.5% | DraftKings odds: +1200

Team temperature: 98°

Why they can win the World Series: They can pitch with anyone. Gavin Williams has evolved into a legitimate No. 1 -- his xFIP, a predictive metric, was better than Cam Schlittler , Chris Sale and Dylan Cease's -- and Parker Messick has been every bit as good and deserves consideration for AL Rookie of the Year. Cleveland's relievers have the highest strikeout rate in the big leagues by a wide margin. Closer Cade Smith anchors that group after totaling 41 saves with a 1.95 ERA.

With as many low-strikeout hitters as they've got, the Guardians' offense is better than in recent seasons, but that isn't saying a lot. Cleveland is the only team in MLB without a 20-homer hitter. The Guardians finished 27th in the big leagues in home runs. The last time Cleveland reached the World Series, of course, it wasn't exactly replete with home run hitters, either. And in this AL field, anything is possible. -- Passan

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If they win it all, the 2026 World Series MVP will be : Steven Kwan , who would be an MVP in the mold of Jeremy Pena in 2022 or David Eckstein in 2006 -- more of an ignitor than a slugger. Kwan had a terrible first three months but leads MLB in on-base percentage since the beginning of July. If he's getting on base and scoring runs, the Guardians can shock the world. -- Schoenfield

If they go home early, it will be because the pitching staff falters. Cleveland, as always, is built around its pitching. The offense, though deeper than recent years with Kwan's bounce-back season and the emergence of rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana , is near the bottom of the majors in runs scored this season. Jose Ramirez , an MVP-level metronome for the past decade, had the worst full season of his career. Cleveland will not win slugfests. The Guardians went 27-22 in one-run games. They'll need to continue winning tight, low-scoring affairs to avoid a short stay in October. -- Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: In spring training, there were questions about whether Messick would be part of the season-opening rotation. He has since become an All-Star, a Cy Young contender and a Rookie of the Year candidate. Messick made an abbreviated start in the regular-season finale and seems like the logical pick to start Game 1 of the ALDS. His fastball-changeup combo is one of the best in the game. He misses bats, limits walks, avoids barrels and, at just 25 years old, is the pitcher the Guardians want on the mound with their season on the line. -- Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: This is far from the best Cleveland team we've seen over the past decade but, then again, the Guardians have fielded a lot of contending teams during that span. Still, baseball's longest title drought endures, and a Cinderella Guardians run to finally land a title for the city and for future Hall of Famer Ramirez would be a heck of a story. -- Doolittle

No. 3 seed | 81-81 | AL West champs

Wild-card opponent: White Sox (51.2% chance of advancing)

Doolittle's WS odds: 1.8% | DraftKings odds: +2500

Team temperature: 73°

Why they can win the World Series: They've got Yordan Alvarez . And though it's not that simple -- it's rare that a single player carries a team for a month -- he is the best hitter in baseball this season by a fair margin and the MVP of the AL. If anyone can, he's the guy. The rest of the Astros don't offer a lot. Jeremy Peña and Isaac Paredes can mash, Yainer Diaz is red hot and Jose Altuve is Jose Altuve. But the other spots in the lineup leave plenty to be desired.

The rotation, beyond Hunter Brown , is a mess. The bullpen isn't a lot better. There's a reason the Astros have the title of Worst Team Ever to Make the Postseason: Houston is not very good. And yet, this is baseball. Regular-season record doesn't matter anymore, and doubting the Astros in October is a fool's errand. -- Passan

If they win it all, the 2026 World Series MVP will be: Will teams even pitch to Alvarez? Ask the Mariners and Phillies how that worked out. Alvarez is the only player in postseason history with seven consecutive games with two or more hits. He has hit .294/.393/.551 in 60 playoff games (although he hasn't hit that well in three World Series, other than that clinching home run against the Phillies in 2022). It has to be Alvarez, right? Maybe. But if the Astros pull this off, someone on the pitching staff will have to step up, and Hunter Brown is the guy capable of throwing a couple World Series gems. -- Schoenfield

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If they go home early, it will be because Alvarez could carry them only so far. Alvarez was inarguably the best hitter in baseball this season, so much better than his peers that he's expected to become the second primary designated hitter to win an MVP award. And yet, the Astros stumbled into the postseason only because the AL West was historically dreadful.

Alvarez is a postseason menace, but teams will surely pitch around him. Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes and others will need to step up. -- Castillo

Ready for his October close-up: By the end of July, Tatsuya Imai had made 15 major league starts and put up a 5.83 ERA. His first season in the United States -- after signing a three-year, $54 million deal, representing the Astros' first major foray into Japan -- had been a disaster. Imai has since transitioned into a multi-inning bullpen role and made himself really useful, putting up a 2.12 ERA with 24 strikeouts in 17 innings.

The Astros finished in the bottom 10 in getting innings from their starting pitchers. Josh Hader and Bryan Abreu will do a lot of heavy lifting in the playoffs. But Imai's presence will be critical, too. -- Gonzalez

Why you should root for them: Alvarez has already done it all as an elite hitter in the regular season and the playoffs. Who could forget his dramatic homer over the batter's eye in Houston during the Astros' title-clinching win over the Phillies in 2022? Only Aaron Judge has a higher OPS since Alvarez broke into the majors in 2019 and, yes, that means Alvarez has a higher mark than Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto .

Alvarez is still only 29, and it feels like if he can stay on the field, he will build a solid case for Cooperstown. Leading a flawed Astros team to an unexpected title would certainly be a nice line on his Hall of Fame résumé. -- Doolittle

No. 4 seed | 93-68 | AL wild card

Wild-card opponent: Red Sox (57.9% chance of advancing)

Doolittle's WS odds: 10.8% | DraftKings odds: +850

Team temperature: 87°

Why they can win the World Series: Their rotation can shut down every lineup in baseball, and their hitters regularly leave the yard. Cam Schlittler , Max Fried , Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are capable of navigating playoff lineups and pitching deep into games. If the Yankees' starters afford manager Aaron Boone the ability to shorten his bullpen to Brent Headrick , Paul Blackburn and David Bednar -- -- combined ERA over 232⅔ innings: 2.09 -- they'll be in an envious spot.

The Yankees outhomered every team in MLB this year, and considering Aaron Judge missed more than half the season, that's saying something. With perfectly OK defense and baserunni

_Originally reported by [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/50027943/2026-mlb-playoffs-preview-world-series-odds-matchup-keys-tips)._