NFL Week 3 Picks, Odds: Josh Allen Leads Bills; Saints Remain Undefeated

If you have anyone in Chicago, D.C., or New York, check in on them. Hug them. Buy them a coffee (or maybe something stronger). They need a pick-me-up. Why? Because their quarterbacks all went down in Week 2.

Of course, there are varying degrees of severity when it comes to these injuries, with Caleb Williams ' hamstring seemingly the least severe, while Jayden Daniels (elbow) will miss time, and Jaxson Dart (knee) could miss the entire season. Some may be back sooner than later, but all of them will likely be sidelined for Week 3, which is our central focus here.

Those injuries (among others) have sent the odds ping-ponging in different directions, which adds a layer of difficulty to pinpointing our bets for the upcoming slate. Nevertheless, we'll plow through.

It's been a solid start to the season for us, owning a 16-16 ATS record overall and a 24-8 record straight-up. Last week, I went 7-9 ATS and 11-5 straight-up. When it comes to my five Locks of the Week, I rebounded with a 3-2 ATS mark in Week 2, which brings us to an even 5-5 ATS record through two weeks. Now, we try to move above .500 ATS, and that'll start with my five Locks of the Week for Week 3.

2026 record

- Locks of the Week ATS : 5-5-0 - ATS : 16-16-0 - ML : 24-8

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo , try for free)

The Chargers feel like they're lost at the moment. They've dropped back-to-back games they should've won if we were looking at it solely from a talent standpoint. In fact, they are the first team ever to start 0-2, with both losses coming against teams that lost 14 or more games the previous season. And we're supposed to expect them to march into Buffalo and take down Josh Allen and the Bills ? Jim Harbaugh and the defense just let Kirk Cousins throw for 253 yards through the air and three touchdowns. Allen is on an MVP trajectory over his first two games, totaling nine touchdowns. He's a freight train, and it feels like the Chargers will be his next victim. Meanwhile, Justin Herbert hasn't shown much through the first two games. The offense is averaging 14 points per game, and Herbert is being pressured at the second-highest rate (46%) in the NFL this season, despite being blitzed at the fifth-lowest rate (23%). He's struggled mightily on throws that have traveled 10-plus air yards, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions on such throws. This feels like it could get ugly.

Projected score : Bills 31, Chargers 20 The pick : Bills -7

New York Jets at Detroit Lions

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo , try for free)

I feel like Fredo Corleone by turning my back on the Jets like this. We backed them over the last two weeks (straight up in Week 1 and then ATS in Week 2), and they cashed both times. But like Paulie said in Goodfellas : "Now I gotta turn my back on you."

With this line sitting below a touchdown, we'll pounce on it in favor of Detroit. This is an offense that has put up at least 30 points in each of the last two games, and both contests turned into a track meet. While New York has been frisky this season (and I expect them to continue to be an ATS darling for the bulk of the year), I'm not sure Geno Smith and company keep up in this spot. Sure, this defense has allowed just 65.5 rushing yards per game over the first two weeks (second-lowest in the NFL), but that's come against backfields led by Tony Pollard and MarShawn Lloyd . Jahmyr Gibbs is a totally different animal, and I don't see that level of containment on the ground to continue.

The Lions ' shaky defense admittedly gives me some pause. They are giving up 35.5 points per game and 457.5 total yards per game through the first two weeks, which rank 31st in the NFL. But as I said, if this turns into a shootout, I like Detroit's chances with the slew of weapons they have, especially given the added rest after playing on Thursday. They are also 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games following a loss.

Projected score : Lions 33, Jets 21 The pick : Lions -6.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+ )

History will be made Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. Since 1970, the Chiefs have not covered a single game in which they are a double-digit favorite on the road. In those prior 11 instances, they are 0-10-1 ATS. That changes in Week 3.

While Kenneth Walker III stole the show in Week 1, Patrick Mahomes is the one who really grabbed my attention. After a modest return in the season opener, where he still didn't look quite comfortable throwing the football, Mahomes was BACK against the Colts , completing 32-of-47 passes for 382 yards and three touchdowns. If Mahomes is getting closer to his old self, throwing the ball, and Walker provides a much-needed burst out of the backfield, it's hard to imagine the  Dolphins  having any chance of keeping this close.

Miami was nearly a two-touchdown (-13.5) underdog on the road last week against the Niners and couldn't cover, losing 35-13. Brock Purdy sliced up the Dolphins' secondary, missing just two of his 22 pass attempts on the day. Most of his production went to George Kittle (four catches for 80 yards and a touchdown), so you best believe Andy Reid will look to attack that same weakness with his star QB-TE duo of Mahomes and Travis Kelce .

Projected score : Chiefs 33, Dolphins 16 The pick : Chiefs -10.5

Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders

- Sunday, 1 p.m. (Fox, Stream: Fubo , try for free)

It's a bummer to see so many quarterbacks go down, especially Daniels. When he's been healthy, he's lifted the ceiling for a Commanders organization that desperately needed a shot in the arm. However, injuries have been an unfortunately large part of his story, and it rears its head again with this latest elbow dislocation. With Daniels sidelined, Marcus Mariota (who has lost six of his last seven starts) gets the nod, and I just have a hard time fathoming how the veteran can consistently put up points against this stellar Seattle defense.

The Seahawks come into this Week 3 matchup after allowing just 17 total points over the first two weeks, which is the lowest through two games by any team since 2013. They are also lights out on the road, winning 15 of their last 16 games away from Lumen Field. While Sam Darnold is planning to practice this week, I'm confident backing Seattle if it remains  Drew Lock . He has filled Darnold's shoes admirably, including a three-touchdown showing in Week 3 (all of which went to Jaxon Smith-Njigba ).

Projected score : Seahawks 27, Commanders 17 The pick : Seahawks -7

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints

- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. (CBS, Stream on Paramount+ )

Both the Raiders and Saints have been pleasant surprises to begin the season. Las Vegas is 2-0, which puts them multiple games above .500 for the first time since 2021. Meanwhile, the Saints have been one of the most potent offenses in the league through two weeks and just pulled off a notable upset over the Ravens in Week 2. Specifically, I think Tyler Shough is legit. The Saints quarterback was dynamite in the fourth-quarter comeback over Baltimore, completing 12-of-14 for 119 yards and a touchdown. He'll present the toughest challenge of the season so far for the Raiders, who beat up against a lackluster Dolphins team and a Chargers club that, as I mentioned above, is lost. There is real buzz for New Orleans to win the NFC South this season, and I expect that buzz to be palpable when the Saints open up Caesars Superdome for the first time after beginning the year with back-to-back road games.

Projected score : Saints 24, Raiders 20 The pick : Saints -3

Rest of the bunch

Falcons at Packers (Thursday) Projected score : Packers 26, Falcons 21 The pick : Falcons +6.5

Panthers at Browns Projected score : Panthers 24, Browns 21 The pick : Panthers -2.5

Texans at Colts Projected score : Colts 26, Texans 23 The pick : Colts +2.5

Titans at Giants Projected score : Titans 23, Giants 20 The pick : Titans +3

Bengals at Steelers Projected score : Bengals 27, Steelers 20 The pick : Bengals -3.5

Patriots at Jaguars Projected score : Jaguars 23, Patriots 21 The pick : Patriots +3

Cardinals at 49ers Projected score : 49ers 33, Cardinals 23 The pick : 49ers -8.5

Vikings at Buccaneers Projected score : Vikings 23, Buccaneers 21 The pick : Vikings -1.5

Ravens at Cowboys (in Brazil) Projected score : Ravens 31, Cowboys 29 The pick : Cowboys +3

Rams at Broncos Projected score : Rams 23, Broncos 20 The pick : Rams -2.5

Eagles at Bears (Monday) Projected score : Eagles 26, Bears 20 The pick : Eagles -3.5

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2026-nfl-week-3-picks-odds-predictions/)._