NFL Week 4: Jordan Dajani’s ATS Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

Week 3 in the NFL was a weird one! The Atlanta Falcons blew out the Packers in Green Bay, Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars defeated a struggling Drake Maye , and the old man Case Keenum dominated the Philadelphia Eagles in prime time. I can't even be mad at myself for getting that one wrong.

As for our best bets, we went 3-2. The Buffalo Bills came back to cover the spread against the Los Angeles Chargers , the Detroit Lions covered against the New York Jets by half a point thanks to a late touchdown, and perhaps my best call was taking the Denver Broncos to upset the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night. That was the most Broncos game I've ever seen. They start slow and then come firing back. A 16-0 halftime lead wasn't enough for Matthew Stafford and Co.

Here's a look at what I'm thinking this week. As always, credit to the CBS Sports research team for making me sound smart.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Top five picks ATS record: 8-7 Overall ATS record: 23-25 Straight-up record: 27-21

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-7)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on  Paramount+ )

The Bills played poorly against the Chargers, yet still found a way to cover the spread. Buffalo lost the turnover battle, 5-1, racked up 10 penalties for 88 yards, lost the time of possession battle and Josh Allen didn't throw a single touchdown, yet the Bills won by eight points. Remarkable.

Not only is Joe Brady likely motivated to get his team back on track following a subpar performance, but he also wants to score a divisional win over a rival that won the AFC East last year. You don't want to overreact to a slow start, but it does look like the New England Patriots are spiraling a bit. At the very least, it doesn't appear that the Patriots are going to the Super Bowl this year. Mike Vrabel is even having to address rumors that there's a rift between him and his quarterback  — which is absolutely ridiculous.

The Patriots have scored 29 points on 30 drives this season, which are the fewest points per drive (0.97) by any team through three games since Zach Wilson's first three career starts with the Jets. New England's 12.0 points per game are tied with the Miami Dolphins for worst in the league, while the Bills are leading everyone with 33.7 points per game. I know divisional games are typically close, but give me Buffalo to cover at home.

The pick:  Bills -7 Projected score:  Bills 28-17

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

I don't care if this game is on the other side of the country in another time zone. The Rams have to be upset with how that game against the Broncos ended on Sunday night. It was their second-largest blown lead (19 points) over the last 40 seasons, and the Rams find themselves at 1-2 despite leading the NFL in total yards per game (417.7).

I'm sure the Eagles are upset with how Monday night went against Case Keenum and the Chicago Bears  as well, but I don't have any advanced statistics to show they are actually a good team. The defense hasn't registered a takeaway through the first three games of a season for the first time since 1945, and Jalen Hurts looked lost in Sean Mannion's new offense. He threw for 153 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception vs. the Bears.

The injury report is another reason why I'm taking the Rams here. Los Angeles is expected to get Puka Nacua back, while DeVonta Smith is expected to miss Sunday with a hamstring injury.

The pick:  Rams -3.5 Projected score:  Rams 26-20

Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on  Paramount+ )

Let's get frisky. The Las Vegas Raiders are a surprising 3-0 thanks to a combination of factors. Kirk Cousins is averaging three touchdown passes per game, and the defense leads the NFL in turnover differential (+5) and takeaways (9). However, there's no denying the Raiders have played the easiest strength of schedule in the NFL, as their first three opponents are a combined 1-8. Still, this Vegas team is competitive.

While the Kansas City Chiefs did cover the spread against the Dolphins last week, it was a one-score game until three minutes remained in the fourth quarter. Kenneth Walker is going to once again be the weapon for Rob Leonard to key on, but I think the Raiders can keep this one close. Believe it or not, the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road divisional games.

The pick:  Raiders +4.5 Projected score:  Chiefs 24-21

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

The Dolphins are, unfortunately, the only team in the NFL that has not held a lead this season, and they have lost all three of their games by at least 14 points. Offensively, Miami just lost star running back De'Von Achane for the year due to a torn ACL, while defensively, this is the only team on record to allow a 70% completion percentage with zero sacks through the first three weeks of a season.

It's not like the Minnesota Vikings have been on fire either, despite the 3-0 record. They rank last in total offense this season, and are just the fourth team in the last 85 years to start 3-0 with under 250 yards in each game. Kyler Murray completed 51.7% of his passes for 168 yards, one touchdown and one interception in his first full start with the Vikings last week.

With this game in Minnesota and Brian Flores having the opportunity to unleash fury on a young quarterback with few weapons, I think this is a good opportunity for Murray to win over the fan base.

The pick:  Vikings -10.5 Projected score:  Vikings 23-10

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Stream:  Fubo , try for free)

The Lions are the second team in NFL history to have a negative point differential through three games despite scoring 30 points in each game. This really feels like the "same old Lions" — lethal offense with a frustrating defense. Kelvin Sheppard's unit ranks in the bottom two in scoring defense, total defense, and passing defense. Oh, and third-down percentage and red zone touchdown percentage as well. Yikes.

This Lions offense could destroy the Carolina Panthers defense, which ranks in the bottom five and is now without its top two cornerbacks in Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson . In Carolina's last home game, the Panthers allowed 59 points and 552 total yards. They scored 37 points and lost by 22. I have the Lions outscoring the Panthers in primetime. Dan Campbell is 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in primetime games when favored.

The pick:  Lions -3.5 Projected score:  Lions 35-21

Other Week 4 picks

Steelers (-2.5) 21-17 over Browns Colts (-3.5) 27-21 over Commanders Ravens  21-10 over Titans  (+11.5) Bengals (-2.5) 24-20 over Jaguars Texans (-3) 30-26 over Cowboys Bears 20-17 over Jets (+3.5) Packers 17-14 over Buccaneers  (+3.5) Cardinals (-2.5) 26-23 over Giants Seahawks (-7) 30-20 over Chargers Broncos (+3) 24-23 over 49ers Saints (-2.5) 28-20 over Falcons

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-4-picks-odds-best-bets-chiefs-vegas-lions-panthers/)._