NFL Week 4 Picks: Browns Upset Steelers, Texans Earn First Victory

I'm not saying the NFL should cancel Week 4, but Roger Goodell might at least want to think about postponing it a few days so we all have time to recover from the craziness of Week 3. There were 12 games decided by one score, which was tied for the most of any week ever in NFL history.

There were some highs in Week 3, there were some lows, and then there was whatever the Packers did in that Thursday night game against the Falcons. I would say it was the worst performance of the week, but then the Eagles showed up on Monday night and got torched by a third-string quarterback in Case Keenum. In related news, Case Keenum now has more TD passes (2) on the year than Drake Maye.

If you didn't know that Keenum was still in the NFL, don't worry, I think that describes almost everyone. Speaking of everyone, I would now like to share my picks with everyone, so let's get to them.

Actually, before we get to the picks, here's a quick reminder that you can check out the weekly picks from every  CBSSports.com NFL expert by clicking here , but you were probably already well aware of that since I mention it every week.

One thing that I don't mention every week is that I also write an NFL newsletter for CBS Sports and if you want so subscribe to it, you just need to go here and enter your email . If you sign up, you'll be getting an email to your inbox twice a week that will be full of football news and maybe some cat photos.

Alright, I'm going to stop begging you to sign up for things so that we can get to the picks.

All lines via  DraftKings ; All times ET

NFL Week 4 picks

Steelers (2-1) at Browns (2-1)

- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

I never thought I would say this about the Cleveland Browns, but they might be the most underrated team in the NFL. Two months ago, we were all laughing at their QB battle, but now, Todd Monken is laughing at us. And if he's not, he should be, because the QB he gave the job to has the Browns TIED FOR FIRST IN THE AFC NORTH heading into Week 4.

I can't remember the last time I used the words "Browns" and "First place" in the same sentence, but I have to think it was before COVID. I can't be sure, because I don't really remember anything before COVID. Any time the Browns are in first place, even if it's early in the season, it's still worth mentioning, because this team hasn't won a division title since 1989.

Do you know who was born in 1989? Taylor Swift. Do you know who once sang the national anthem at a Steelers game? Taylor Swift. And the Steelers lost that day... You know what, I have no idea where I was going with that point, so let's move on.

On paper, the Steelers feel like the better team in this game, but I haven't used paper in three years, so I'm not sure that fact actually means anything to me.

When I'm trying to make a pick in a Browns-Steelers game, the only thing I care about are trends, and there are two trends telling me to pick the Browns to win.

First, the Steelers are possibly the worst Thursday night road team the NFL has ever seen. If the Steelers had to play 17 Thursday road games, they would go 0-17. Since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, the Steelers are 3-16 in Thursday road games, and it actually gets worse: They're 0-9 in divisional road games that are played on a Thursday.

They had a chance to end the streak in 2024 with a game in Cleveland against the 2-8 Browns, but they lost. They had a chance to end the streak in 2025 with a game against JOE FLACCO, but they lost to the Bengals. Flacco had only been on the Bengals' roster for nine days when he faced the Steelers and he still managed to throw for 342 yards and three touchdowns in a Bengals' win.

The Thursday road losing streak against divisional opponents started in 1980 with a loss to the Houston Oilers, and it's now been going on for 46 years. This streak has been going on for so long that the Steelers have played two divisional games against opponents who aren't even in their division anymore (Jaguars and Oilers/Titans).

The other trend here is that the city of Cleveland has basically been a black hole for the Steelers. It's like they forget how to play football whenever they have to make the trip to Northern Ohio. The Browns have somehow won four straight home games against Pittsburgh.

And now, the Steelers have to send out their 42-year-old quarterback to start a game on just three days rest. If there's one thing no 42-year-old ever wants to do, it's play two NFL games in five days. I'm taking the BROWNS in an upset.

PICK: Browns (+2.5) 19-16 over Steelers

Cowboys (1-2) at Texans (0-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream:  Fubo  -- try for free))

Jerry Jones might have a lot of friends in the NFL, but apparently, he's not friends with anyone in the NFL scheduling department, because that's the only way to explain what the Cowboys are dealing with this week.

The Cowboys spent Week 3 in Rio de Janeiro, which meant they had to fly 10 hours to South America and then 10 hours back. The one-way trip to Rio covered more than 5,200 miles. Every team that has ever had to fly that far for a game got a bye or extra rest the following week, but not the Cowboys. That's right: The Cowboys are the FIRST team in NFL history to fly at least 5,000 miles for a game and not get any extra rest for their next game. Not only do the Cowboys have to play in Week 4 without any extra rest, but they have to play ON THE ROAD.

Before this year, the NFL had held two games in Brazil and both of those games were played on a Friday. That gave the teams involved two extra days of rest before playing their next game, but the Cowboys won't be getting that.

Here's what Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer had to say about the schedule last week, "The schedule is the schedule, and we will play anybody anytime, anywhere, but it's a unique schedule for sure."

When an NFL coach uses the word "unique" in a situation like this, you can easily read between the lines. I think what Schottenheimer was trying to say is "It's a dumb schedule and I can't believe the NFL did this to us," but instead, he chose his words carefully.

And just in case you're wondering, the Ravens are in a similar situation, but not really. They're getting the Titans at HOME for their post-Brazil matchup. That seems slightly easier than a road game against the Texans.

The Texans are going to be desperate and they're going to be facing a tired Cowboys team that's going to be emotionally exhausted after losing a heartbreaker to the Ravens. Before this week, only two teams had to travel at least 4,400 miles for a game without getting any extra rest the following week: 2021 Dolphins and 2025 Broncos, who both went to London.

How did things go for those two teams after their long trips? With 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Dolphins trailed their game 27-14 while the Broncos trailed 26-8. This means the two teams got outscored a combined 53-22 for the first 49 minutes of each game. That doesn't sound like good news for the Cowboys.

In the post-Brazil special, I fully expect the Cowboys to struggle in the first half before bouncing back in the second half only to lose. That seems like the most Cowboys thing possible that could happen this week.

PICK: Texans (-2.5) 23-20 over Cowboys

Jaguars (2-1) at Bengals (2-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on  Paramount+ )

You may not have noticed because it's the Jaguars and nobody ever seems to notice what they're doing, but Liam Coen is quietly building an unstoppable juggernaut in Jacksonville. The Jaguars have won 10 of their past 11 regular-season games, and those 10 wins have come by an  average  of 20.6 points per game.

The Jaguars are beating people so badly that Trevor Lawrence is regularly being benched well before the game is over.

> Trevor Lawrence has been pulled early in seven of the #Jaguars last 11 games. Here’s how much time was remaining in each. - 4th Quarter (8:07) vs #Chargers - 4th Quarter (6:05) vs #Titans - 4th Quarter (7:08) vs #Colts - 4th Quarter (13:51) vs #Jets - 4th Quarter (13:17) vs… — Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) September 28, 2026

If you have Trevor Lawrence in fantasy, you should probably just get rid of him since he doesn't even play the entire game anymore. Also, you should get rid of him because he doesn't like scoring touchdowns.

> Trevor Lawrence gets through put takes a knee before the end zone. #NFL pic.twitter.com/2zO2Iby4Qz — TSN (@TSN_Sports) September 27, 2026

Although the Jags have been steamrolling everyone, you could argue this is their biggest test of the season and that's mostly because Lawrence can't seem to figure out how to beat the Bengals. He's faced them three times in his career and he's gone 0-3. They're the only team that Lawrence has faced at least three times and never beaten.

The good news for Lawrence is that if last week was any indication, then the key to beating the Bengals is to just let them beat themselves. In Week 3, the Bengals practically gave the game away in the second half during their 30-27 loss to the Steelers. There was a roughing the punter penalty, a separate muffed punt, and let's not forget about Joe Burrow losing a fumble on Cincinnati's final offensive possession of the game. The problem for the Jaguars is that the Bengals never seem to make mistakes like that against them.

The Jags defense has been great this season, but it really hasn't been tested. In Week 1, they faced the Browns and Deshaun Watson, who was making his first NFL start in two years. In Week 2, they got Bo Nix, who still seemed to be a little timid after returning from offseason ankle surgery (Through three weeks, Nix ranks near the bottom of the NFL in total QBR , just behind Cam Ward). In Week 3, the Jags faced Drake Maye, who has apparently forgotten how to play football (He leads the NFL in interceptions through three weeks and he's taken the fourth most sacks).

Basically, facing Burrow is going to be a shock to Jacksonville's system. This feels like a shootout waiting to happen and with the Bengals coming off a loss, I think they rebound with a big win over the Jaguars.

By the way, when the Jags head to Cincinnati this week, everyone in Jacksonville might want to say bye to them, because they won't be back anytime soon. During the month of October, the Jags won't be playing a single game in Jacksonville. After the game against the Bengals, they'll head to London for two games (Eagles in Week 5, Texans in Week 6), and then they'll close out October with a bye in Week 7. This will mark the first time in seven years that a team will go a full calendar month without playing a single home game.

If Jacksonville's season suddenly starts to fall apart in October, now you know why.

PICK : Bengals (-2.5) 34-31 over Jaguars

Raiders (3-0) at Chiefs (3-0)

- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+ )

There are only three undefeated teams left in the AFC and two of them will be facing off in this game. What that means is that you should make some popcorn, put the kids to bed and turn your TV to CBS at 4:25 p.m. ET. Sure, your kids will probably think you're crazy if you try to put them to bed at 4:25 p.m. ET, but sometimes, being crazy is a good thing. You would have had to be crazy to predict that the Raiders would start the season 3-0, but here we are.

I actually like watching the Raiders and that's mostly because I feel like I have more in common with Kirk Cousins than any other NFL quarterback.

He shops at Kohl's. I shop at Kohl's.

He eats at In-N-Out...

> Another win, another trip to In-N-Out for Kirk Cousins and family. https://t.co/2AX7GMwHLf pic.twitter.com/SgvNms43DY — Sam Warren (@samwarren83) September 21, 2026

... And I used to eat at In-N-Out, but I don't anymore because there's not a location anywhere near me.

The Raiders are easy to cheer for, but I'm not sure I can pick them to win this week and that's mostly because I have no idea what to make of them just yet.

Through

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-week-4-picks-and-score-predictions-breech/)._