Penix Jr. Debuts on 'TNF' as Winless Falcons Face Injured Packers

In the Week 3 edition of "Thursday Night Football," the Green Bay Packers play host to the Atlanta Falcons .

Green Bay is 1-1 after the first two weeks of the season, having lost a preposterous game to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 and eking out a fairly disappointing overtime win against the New York Jets in Week 2. The Packers are dealing with numerous injuries entering this game, but it's their first appearance at home on the year and they would surely like to come away with a win.

Atlanta is 0-2 after losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Carolina Panthers , but the Falcons will get their starting quarterback back under center for this one as Michael Penix Jr . is set to return to the fold. The Falcons are also pretty banged up, but at least they'll get to run their real offense as they look for their first win of the season.

Will the Packers move to 2-1, or will the Falcons win for the first time? We'll find out soon enough. Before we break down the matchup, here's a look at how you can watch the game.

Where to watch Packers vs. Falcons live

- Date: Thursday, Sept. 24 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET - Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin) - Streaming: Amazon Prime - Follow: CBS Sports App - Odds: Packers -4.5, O/U 42.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook

When the Falcons have the ball

It's difficult to know exactly what to expect from the Falcons' offense, because we haven't actually seen the Falcons' offense on the field just yet. Cooper Rush started each of the first two games of the season at quarterback, and the offense was -- to put it kindly -- essentially non-functional in those games. Atlanta has totaled 16 points through two weeks, and has turned the ball over seven times. The Falcons are fourth-to-last in offensive success rate and dead last in EPA per play, according to Tru Media. They have been an epic disaster to date.

Of course, Rush will not be under center on Thursday night; Michael Penix Jr. is taking over. We obviously have no idea how healthy Penix is after his latest knee surgery, but he has been cleared to play and has been fully practicing for a while now.

Penix hasn't exactly lit the world on fire in his 14 career appearances. He's 4-8 as a starter, completing 59.6% of his passes at an average of 7.2 yards per attempt, with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. He's struggled badly with accuracy. Among the 40 quarterbacks who have thrown 300 or more passes since Penix entered the league, he ranks 39th in completion rate and 39th in off-target throw rate, per TruMedia.

He's pushed the ball downfield a lot, though, checking in fourth in average depth of throw, and that has helped create some big plays; he ranks 10th in explosives per dropback. He's also rarely taken sacks (4.3% sack rate), which is an interesting combination because quarterbacks who push the ball downfield typically hold the ball longer and leave themselves more susceptible to pressure. Penix also has a low interception rate, but I'd caution that he also has the league's second-highest rate of dropped interceptions (53.8%) since 2024.

How does all this play out against the Packers? Honestly, it's really tough to parse. We know the Falcons will want to get the ball into the hands of Bijan Robinson and Drake London in particular, and probably to Kyle Pitts . Whether Penix is capable of that from a physical standpoint remains to be seen, though it's obviously easier to get the ball to Robinson because you can just turn around and hand it to him. Rush was totally unable to get the ball to London and Pitts, though; Penix almost has to be better at it by default.

Meanwhile, Green Bay's defense has allowed just 3.9 yards per play so far this season. However, there are some extenuating circumstances there. They faced Carson Wentz off the bench in Week 1 and then the Jets in a sloppy, rainy game in Week 2. The Falcons may not present much more of a challenge overall, but it's hard to know how much stock to put into what we've seen from Green Bay through two weeks.

When the Packers have the ball

The matchup on this side of the ball is marred by injuries and suspensions.

Jayden Reed , Zach Bako-Bewele and Aaron Banks are all out for Green Bay. The Packers are also without both Savion Williams and Luke Musgrave , who are on injured reserve and the physically unable to perform list, respectively, and they're without Josh Jacobs , who remains on the commissioner's exempt list.

Meanwhile, A.J. Terrell was placed on injured reserve for Atlanta. Samson Ebukam is also out and Billy Bowman Jr . is questionable after not playing in the first two games of the season. The Falcons are also already without Jalon Walker and Da'Shawn Hand , who are on injured reserve, and James Pearce Jr. , who is suspended.

In other words, there is a lot that is up in the air here, and we don't really know what to expect on this side of the ball, either. What we do know is that both the Green Bay offense and the Atlanta defense have been disappointing so far this season. The Packers rank a mere 17th in yards and 18th in points, and they're a pitiful 27th in TruMedia's version of EPA per play -- tied with the Browns and Buccaneers . The Falcons are actually 12th in yards allowed, but they're 25th in points allowed. They're seventh in EPA per play, but that ranking is being carried for their game against the Steelers; they just got torn asunder by Bryce Young and the Panthers.

Green Bay has struggled to run the ball so far in the absence of Jacobs, with none of MarShawn Lloyd , Chris Brooks or Kaleb Johnson distinguishing themselves and the offensive line looking all kinds of messy due to injuries and a general lack of cohesion and, frankly, talent. Green Bay is averaging just 3.3 yards per carry to date.

The passing game was running hot early in Week 1 against the Vikings, but slowed down late and was dreadful against the Jets in Week 2. Christian Watson , Matthew Golden and Tucker Kraft are quality targets, though, and if the Falcons can't get pressure on Jordan Love , they have the ability to burn Atlanta through the air. Atlanta's pass rush is surprisingly third in pressure rate so far this season, per Tru Media, and if that continues, it could be a rough day at the office for Green Bay's offense.

Prediction

I just can't rightly pick the Falcons given the way they have looked so far this season. I know they're getting an upgrade at quarterback with Penix Jr. replacing whatever Rush was doing out there, but it's not like their defense has been good, either. And now they have injury issues on that side of the ball with Terrell out. The only thing stopping me from predicting a Packers blowout is that they have issues of their own. Micah Parsons remains out. Reed is out. Bako-Bewele is out. Still, they should have enough to win this one fairly comfortably.

Pick: Packers 23, Falcons 13

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/packers-falcons-preview-prediction-odds-how-to-watch/)._