Week 3 Six Pack: LSU vs. Ole Miss, Louisville vs. SMU & Tom Fornelli's Lock Picks

As we enter Week 3 of the season, it appears the Protect College Sports Act has gained significant momentum and could pass soon. If you're like me, the biggest benefit of the act's passing is that you won't have to see any more commercials about it while trying to watch football.

Considering I cover the sport, I should probably care more about the PCSA than I do, but I've never been big on the minutiae of rules. Just tell me what they are, and I'll go from there. That likely puts me in the same camp as many of you reading this, because I see the numbers for what gets read or watched and what doesn't.

Another thing we can probably agree on? How little any of us want to see campaign ads of any type. Honestly, they've practically become a part of the college football tradition at this point, seeing as how the season coincides with campaign season across the country. But while there's no escaping them, surely we can put our greatest minds together to figure out ways to distribute them more efficiently.

I live in Illinois, north of Chicago. That House of Representatives seat that's up for grabs in Texas? Yeah, I don't really care about that one person's voting record! I don't need to see that ad every 20 minutes! There has to be a way to show the ads where they're relevant.

Let me watch the same ads for a beer, a sportsbook, a fast-food restaurant, or a sporting goods store instead. Hell, give me nothing but Fansville commercials! Those are great! But if it's going to be a campaign ad, limit it to campaigns I'm allowed to legally vote in.

Thank you for your attention to this matter, and now for matters far more important.

Games of the Week

No. 7 LSU at No. 8 Ole Miss

I've had this game circled on the calendar for months, as have many of you. Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford for the first time since burning every bridge between it and Baton Rouge. We know the atmosphere will be incredible, though I don't know if it will match the level of vitriol from Kiffin's first return to Knoxville. If it does, the bottles thrown are more likely to be classy red wines than whiskey (or mustard).

As for the game on the field, both teams are off to impressive starts to the season, though I believe Ole Miss has had a more difficult schedule. When you compare Louisville at a neutral site to Clemson in Baton Rouge, the Rebels played the better team in a tougher environment. That said, LSU decimated Clemson while the Rebels were in a back-and-forth affair. But I wonder if that makes the Rebels more prepared for this game.

I have tried breaking this down from every possible angle to find a bet, and essentially, it comes down to this: LSU is better than Ole Miss in many areas. I believe the Tigers have the better defense, particularly at the back end. I believe the Tigers are a little better along the lines of scrimmage, though not overwhelmingly so. I believe the Tigers have the more experienced coaching staff for games like this. However, LSU doesn't have the edge at the most important position of them all.

Trinidad Chambliss clears Sam Leavitt by a lot. Now, I've argued that Ole Miss can be too reliant on Chambliss to make miracles happen, but even so, he keeps doing it. And I can't help but think of Leavitt's turnover issues. Those three interceptions he threw against Louisiana Tech last week are not flukes. When Leavitt has faced tougher competition on the road in his career, he has been prone to making mistakes. Given the atmosphere of this game, I can't help but believe he'll make a mistake or two this Saturday as well. Perhaps LSU plays well enough outside of them to make up for it. It's more likely they don't. The Pick: Ole Miss +3 (-110) at DraftKings

No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville

This one is massive. Louisville already has a loss on its record, but while it wasn't a conference game, a second loss would essentially mean the Cardinals have to win the ACC to even entertain the idea of getting to the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, a win for SMU would not only move the Mustangs to 2-0 in the ACC, but they'd also be 2-0 on the road in the ACC, and through the toughest portion of the conference schedule already.

So who gets this win? I'm not sure! I genuinely believe the line here is accurate, because it feels like a game that's mostly a coin flip. It's likely to come down to which team makes the fewest mistakes, or at least avoids the backbreaking one.

Which is one of the reasons I lean toward the under. They don't call him Big Game Brohm because Jeff Brohm's teams get tight in big spots, but the Cardinals offense skews more toward the rushing attack when it's at its best, especially now with Lincoln Kienholz at QB. While SMU has been pass-heavy to start the year, I won't be surprised to see them lean more into Kevin Jennings and his legs for this matchup. Also, while it's not a huge sample, it's worth pointing out that the games we've seen this season between Power Four opponents have been a little lower-scoring than anticipated. When those P4 teams face overmatched opponents, points come quickly. Especially in games with spreads like this. There have been 30 games between P4 schools so far this year. When the spread is a touchdown or less, the under has gone 22-8. It's not necessarily predictive of how things will go from here on out, but it's certainly an indicator of how teams are approaching these games. The Pick: Under 59.5 (-115) at Fanduel

Lock of the Week

Charlotte at Appalachian State

Some of the best offensive coordinators in football at every level have built their reputations with a simple philosophy. They find the worst part of an opponent's defense and attack it relentlessly. My approach with this pick is very much along that same train of thought.

Charlotte is bad. Like, really bad, particularly on defense. The 49ers defense ranks last in the nation in success rate, 135th in EPA per snap, 133rd in points allowed per drive, and 117th in explosive plays allowed.

"But, Tom, surely that's because they've played two great teams to start the year, and it's skewing the numbers!"

Sure, playing at Ole Miss last week wasn't easy, but the same defense that allowed 41 points to Ole Miss allowed 43 to The Citadel a week earlier. It's bad. And now that defense is going on the road to face an Appalachian State team that's 25th nationally in EPA per snap and 12th in explosive play rate. I'm confident the Mountaineers will put plenty of points on the board. The Pick: Appalachian State Team Total Over 34.5 (-115) at DraftKings

Over of the Week

New Mexico at No. 24 Oklahoma

I'm looking to take advantage of some possible overreactions here. There's no denying that the Oklahoma offense, and John Mateer in particular, had a miserable performance against Michigan last week. However, as bad as the offense looked, it's more of a concern for me when the Sooners play teams of a more equal talent level than when they don't, especially at home.

The Sooners have played 11 home games against non-Power Four competition since Brent Venables arrived in 2022 and have scored 45.8 points per game in those contests. In other words, they might reach this total on their own. Still, I prefer attacking the total for the game rather than Oklahoma's team total, because this New Mexico team has proven to be a pain in the butt for plenty of teams lately, and I wouldn't be shocked if the Lobos go over their team total as well. So I think this approach provides a little more margin of error. The Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) at Fanduel

Bet and Forget Game of the Week

Ohio at South Alabama

Listen, we don't just bet on the big games that people will be watching in this column. We don't care where the value is; we find it, and we take advantage of it. Do I expect you to open up your streaming app on Saturday night to put this game on instead of LSU/Ole Miss? Of course not, though you'd earn some respect from me if you did.

But you can still bet on it and track it, or put it on another screen just to see how it's going. My prediction is that it will go smoothly. Ohio's offense has not been overly impressive to begin the season, and the team is dealing with a few injuries that are likely to make life much more difficult. Meanwhile, on the other side, South Alabama has looked pretty good all things considered. They jumped out to a 10-0 lead at Tulane last week and led the game in the fourth quarter before the Green Wave got a touchdown in the final minutes to win 28-24. If they play like that again this week, Ohio will have a very difficult time keeping up. The Pick: South Alabama -7 (-108) at DraftKings

Upset of the Week

North Carolina at Clemson

I know it feels a little too obvious, but sometimes the obvious play is the best play. Clemson is in a terrible place right now. The hope last week was that they'd recover from getting destroyed by LSU by taking things out on Georgia Southern and making everybody around the program feel better about the situation. Instead, the Tigers' offense looked sad, scoring only 22 points and going 2-for-14 on third down. Now the Tigers are starting freshman Tait Reynolds at quarterback, and not just because Christopher Vizzina is banged up.

They'll be facing a North Carolina defense that looked pretty damn good against TCU a couple of weeks ago, particularly on the defensive line. Clemson's offensive line has not looked impressive, and it could be a big problem for them against the Tar Heels. Toss in an inexperienced QB going against Bill Belichick, and it could be a tough row to hoe for the Tigers. Now, having said that, it's not as if the Tar Heels' offense has been lights out itself, but it's been much better than Clemson's. I don't know if either team needs to score more than 17 points to win this one, and I have a little more faith in Carolina's ability to get there than Clemson's at the moment. The Pick: North Carolina (+146) at Fanduel

Bets Last Week Season Units

Games of the Week

2-0

4-0

+4.00

Lock of the Week

1-0

1-1

-0.15

Upset of the Week 0-1 0-2 -2.00

Overall

3-3

6-6

-0.50

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/six-pack-picks-lsu-ole-miss-louisville-smu-week-3/)._