ALDS Game 3: Max Fried, lineup adjustments crucial for Yankees vs. Rays

Enjoy Wednesday around Major League Baseball, because it will be the last time we have four playoff games on the same day. The prime-time matchup features the Tampa Bay Rays trying to eliminate the New York Yankees in Game 3 of the ALDS, but with Max Fried on the hill for the Bombers, I expect a Game 4 on Thursday night back at Yankee Stadium. Bet $5+ on any of today's MLB games to get $150 in bonus bets at DraftKings Sportsbook:

It's an 8 ET first pitch tonight on TBS. It looks to be a bit pitcher-friendly weather, with temps in the lower 60s at first pitch and winds somewhat sideways 5 to 10 mph. At around -160 at DraftKings , New York is taking 72% of handle and 68% of bets. There is split action on the total of 7. The Rays are now -750 on the series line and the Yanks +500. In all best-of-five postseason series, teams with a 2-0 lead have gone on to win the series 83 of 93 times (89%). The last time a team rallied from 0-2 in a best-of-5 was in the 2017 ALDS, when the Yankees advanced after losing the first two games in Cleveland.

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Rays vs. Yankees MLB same-game parlay

- New York money line - Race to seven runs: Neither

FanDuel SGP price: +113 (subject to change)

I think it's fair to say the Yankees could really use Aaron Judge right about now, having been held to two total runs in dropping the first two games at Tropicana Field. And the defense was a disaster in Monday's 5-2 loss in committing four errors (three in the first inning alone), one shy of the franchise playoff record.

The lone bright spot was Ben Rice hitting a pair of solo shots, already his second two-homer game of these playoffs after he had one in Game 1 of the Wild-Card Round vs. Boston. I was stunned to hear Rice is the first player in Yankees history with two multi-homer games in a single postseason. His five homers are the second-most in Yankees history in a player's first 10 postseason games, behind Bernie Williams' six. Rice is +326 to go yard tonight, shortest odds of any player.

However, other than Rice's two homers, the Yankees reached safely just three other times in the first two games (one hit, two walks) while striking out 17 times. Manager Aaron Boone said he's thinking about some lineup changes for Game 3. Sounds like Anthony Volpe and trade acquisition Heliot Ramos may get their shots.

Just getting out of St. Petersburg is probably nice for the Yankees, as they are 2-7 there this year including playoffs. Lefty Max Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA) is charged with extending the season. He was limited to 20 regular-season starts due to injury and was 0-1 with a 4.30 ERA in two against Tampa Bay with a .226 opponents' batting average in 14.2 innings.  Fried is 5-1 all-time with a 1.81 ERA in seven starts vs. Tampa Bay, including 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in three starts during the 2025 season.

Fried has struggled in his playoff career, at 3-6 with a 5.03 ERA in 23 appearances over 82.1 innings, but was very good last Wednesday in beating the Red Sox with one run and three hits allowed over six. Note that Fried could be a bit distracted amid reports that his girlfriend is expecting the couple's first child. He says he'll be pitching regardless: "It's not going to affect what happens."

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts Fried at 5.8 innings, 5.5 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 1.8 earned runs. He is +221 to win. No Rays have had much regular-season success off him, with Junior Caminero at 2-for-15 with no homers and Jonathan Aranda 1-for-12 with five Ks.

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If you don't like watching the Rays, you don't like real baseball. They bunt, steal, play station-to-station baseball and stress opposing defenses but also can go yard. Such a well-managed, professional baseball club but "only" five games above .500 away compared to 57-26 at Tropicana Field including playoffs.

"This is not a team that gives you a lot of free passes," Boone said after Game 2. "They're as good as anyone in the sport at limiting walks. So you've got to do it in different ways. Whatever presents itself. Some nights, it's going to be, yeah, a walk gets things going. Some nights it's putting the ball into play. Sometimes it's putting the ball in the seats."

Through the first two games, the Rays have used only two traditional relievers in Cam Booser and closer Bryan Baker , so that's a huge edge that all those other guys in the bullpen are well-rested and unseen by the Yankees.

Journeyman righty Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA), a first-time All-Star in 2026, makes the biggest start of his career tonight. The 36-year-old was hit hard in his season finale back on Sept. 27 in Philadelphia but was very good away from Tropicana Field overall, going 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA in 16 road starts.

Martinez was 0-1 in three starts against New York despite a 2.16 ERA – two of those outings were in the Bronx. The Yankees hit a collective .284 off him. The model projects him at 6.0 innings, 4.2 strikeouts, 4.7 hits allowed and 2.1 earned runs. He is a whopping +700 to win. Martinez has made eight career playoff appearances, all in relief: Seven in 2022 with San Diego and one game last year with Cincinnati. He's 0-1 with a 3.18 ERA.

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If my research is right, New York is 5-10 under Boone when facing elimination but did win a Game 3 in this same ALDS scenario last year at home vs. Toronto before going out in four. I trust Fried more than I do Martinez, and the Bombers are 48-34 at home including playoffs. Not the best parlay price, but sometimes simpler is better -- if you did "race to six runs: neither" instead of race to seven, this would pay +151. That's quite tempting as the model has a very slight Yankees win at 3.9-3.7   Check out other expert picks in the SportsLine daily newsletter .

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/rays-vs-yankees-alds-game-3-parlay-picks-max-fried-lineup-changes-could-save-new-yorks-season-wednesday/)._