Big 12 2026-27 Preseason Projections: Order of Finish, Top Players

The Big 12 sent eight schools to the 2026 NCAA Tournament -- among them Arizona , which advanced all the way to the Final Four in Indianapolis after winning the league title by multiple games and conference tournament in dramatic fashion. It was a great year for the conference, all things considered, especially after Big 12 alums AJ Dybantsa (BYU) and Darryn Peterson ( Kansas ) went first and second in the 2026 NBA Draft .

Is the best yet to come? Perhaps.

For what it's worth, three of the top eight teams in the preseason rankings at BartTorvik.com are in the Big 12. And it is those three teams -- specifically Arizona, Houston and Kansas -- that top our Big 12 projections after a panel of CBS Sports writers and analysts submitted ballots predicting how things will unfold.

In my mind, the most interesting story is at Kansas, where Bill Self enters Year 24 in Lawrence trying to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since he guided the Jayhawks to his second national championship in 2022. To help him do it, the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame coach has enrolled Tyran Stokes, the top-ranked prospect in the Class of 2026 and favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. An 18th Big 12 regular-season title is definitely possible. But Arizona and Houston -- not to mention Texas Tech and Iowa State -- are obvious hurdles in KU's path to securing another trophy.

ACC expert picks: 2026-27 projected order of finish, preseason predictions, top players to watch Cameron Salerno

Here is everything you need to know about the Big 12 -- including player of the year predictions, conference standings and the best players in the league.

CBS Sports Big 12 Preseason Player/Freshman of Year

Tyran Stokes | G/F | Kansas

Pistons star Cade Cunningham won 2021 Big 12 Player of the Year honors in his only season of college basketball at Oklahoma State . Since then, the award has been given out five more times, and yet Cunningham remains the last freshman to win it. But that should change this season thanks to Tyran Stokes' enrollment at Kansas. The 6-foot-8 guard is the top prospect from the Class of 2026 and  leading candidate to be the first pick of the 2027 NBA Draft. If Stokes meets those expectations, he should become in June just the third Kansas player to go No. 1 overall -- joining Danny Manning (1988) and Andrew Wiggins (2014).

Four more players to watch

Caleb Holt | SG | Arizona

If Stokes doesn't win Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors, it might be Caleb Holt's award to grab. The 6-5 guard is ranked third in the Class of 2026, according to 247Sports, behind only Stokes and Arkansas freshman Jordan Smith. Holt is expected to start in Arizona's backcourt next to North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon . For Arizona to make back-to-back Final Fours under Tommy Lloyd, the Wildcats will need Holt to impact things on both ends of the court, especially defensively, where his 81-inch wingspan is a huge advantage on the perimeter.

JT Toppin | PF | Texas Tech

JT Toppin was the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year while averaging 18.2 points and 9.4 rebounds as a sophomore at Texas Tech. Then, as a junior last season, the 6-9 forward averaged more points (21.8) and more rebounds (10.8), meaning he would've possibly won the award again if not for him tearing the ACL in his right knee during a Feb. 17 loss to Arizona State . Surgery came next. Rehab followed. And though Toppin is not expected to start the season, all indications are that he will play at some point -- and possibly sooner than most anticipated when he went down and missed the Red Raiders' final eight games.

Joseph Tugler | PF | Houston

Joseph Tugler has never been Houston's leading scorer or leading rebounder. He might never be either of those things. But what he has been, for three straight years now, is an important rotation piece for a Houston team that's finished in the top four at KenPom.com every year he's been enrolled. Tugler was on the Big 12 All-Freshman Team in 2024 and the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year in 2025. He's started 69 games the past two seasons and should play in a fourth straight Sweet 16 in March.

Rob Wright | PG | BYU

When Rob Wright entered the transfer portal, and Kentucky pursued him with all that money, the 6-1 guard seemed on the verge of enrolling in a third school in three years after spending his first two seasons at Baylor and BYU , respectively. He even took a visit to Lexington. But shortly after doing so, Wright recommitted to BYU in what doubled as a big recruiting win for third-year Cougars coach Kevin Young. Wright averaged 18.1 points and 4.6 assists last season. He's the biggest reason why BYU is projected to make the NCAA Tournament for the fourth straight year.

Big 12 predicted order of finish

1. Arizona

Breakdown: Tommy Lloyd, last season, became the first coach to guide Arizona to the Final Four since Naismith Memorial Hall of Famer Lute Olson did it in 2001. In the process, the 51-year-old former Gonzaga assistant was pursued by North Carolina to replace Hubert Davis. But, ultimately, Lloyd stayed put, and another trip to the sport's last weekend in 2027 isn't some far-fetched dream.

Would it have been better if Koa Peat returned to school like a lot of evaluators suggested he should? Yes, of course. But with two starters back in Mo Krivas and Ivan Kharchenkov , and a top-10 recruiting class highlighted by five-star freshman Caleb Holt, four-star freshman Cameron Holmes and North Carolina transfer Derek Dixon, the Wildcats are still talented enough to win a second consecutive outright Big 12 championship. That's why they're the pick here. And, for what it's worth, they're also ranked second nationally at BartTorvik.com. So, yeah, on paper, strong team.

2. Houston

Breakdown: The Cougars have made seven straight trips to the Sweet 16, two of which resulted in appearances in the Final Four. (In a related note, Kelvin Sampson not already being in the Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame makes no sense to me.) Will Houston make an eighth straight Sweet 16? If that's the question this preseason, my answer would be a thumbs up.

Yes, the Cougars lost a lot -- specifically their top four scorers, most notably top-10 pick Kingston Flemings and three-year starter Emanuel Sharp. But among the things the Cougars didn't lose is defensive star Joseph Tugler -- and their coach. And that combination, along with returning rotation pieces Mercy Miller and Chase McCarty , plus LSU transfer Dedan Thomas Jr. , should be enough to keep Houston nationally relevant in what will be Sampson's 13th year at the school he moved from the American to the Big 12 with absolutely no issues at all.

3. Kansas

Breakdown: Relative to its own ridiculous standard established over the previous two decades under Naismith Memorial Hall of Fame coach Bill Self, Kansas has been down lately. The Jayhawks have finished tied for fifth (2024), sixth (2025) and tied for third (2026) in the Big 12 in the past three seasons. In the 20 years that preceded that stretch, Kansas never finished lower than outright-third in the Big 12 while winning two national championships, 17 Big 12 regular-season titles and nine Big 12 Tournament championships.

Needless to write, Self could really use a bounce-back year -- either to re-establish his place in the league or to allow the 63 year-old to exit the sport, as they say, on a high note. This projection suggests our panel of writers and analysts believe that a bounce-back season is on the way thanks largely to the enrollment of five-star freshman Tyran Stokes and return of double-digit scorer Tre White .

4. Texas Tech

Breakdown:  When will JT Toppin be ready to go? That's the biggest question connected to the Red Raiders this preseason. As noted above, the 2025 Big 12 Player of the Year tore his ACL in February -- and nobody has indicated he'll be cleared in advance of Texas Tech's season-opener against Jackson State .

So when will we see him? If it's early, this projection might be too low for the Red Raiders. If it's late, it might be too high. Either way, Darrion Williams is among this season's boomerang-transfers. He spent last year at NC State after helping Texas Tech advance to the Elite Eight of the 2025 NCAA Tournament as the team's second-leading scorer, behind only Toppin. Bottom line, if Toppin returns early, and Williams is as good as he's already shown himself to be, don't rule out the Red Raiders winning their first outright Big 12 regular-season championship -- ever.

5. Iowa State

Breakdown: At some point, the money Kentucky was offering to proven college basketball players was going to downgrade a program somewhere. Iowa State became a victim of this when three-year starter, and last season's leading scorer, Milan Momcilovic , committed to UK. The price tag was reportedly around $6 million. Iowa State was in no position to counter-offer. But that doesn't mean the Cyclones are going to miss the NCAA Tournament for the first time under sixth-year coach TJ Otzelberger. The opposite is likely true.

The offseason shoulder-injury to Killyan Toure is a bummer. But the NCAA's new five-for-five rule, combined with a favorable judge, has given Tamin Lipsey a fifth year of eligibility. The 6-1 guard has started 137 games for an Iowa State program that's advanced in the NCAA Tournament every season he's played. The bet here is that the Cyclones will do it again, in part because Lipsey is in position to do it again.

6. BYU

Breakdown: AJ Dybantsa led the sport in scoring last season before becoming the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NBA Draft. He was awesome. (And there's no reason to believe that sentence won't be typed a lot for the next decade, at least.) But do you know who else was really good at BYU last season? Rob Wright! The 6-1 guard averaged 18.1 points and 4.6 assists for a BYU team that was ranked 16th in the AP poll when Richie Saunders, the Cougars' third-leading scorer, went down with a torn ACL. With Dybantsa and Saunders off to the NBA , Wright considered leaving the Big 12; he actually visited Kentucky. But not long after meeting with UK about a possible transfer, Wright recommitted to the Cougars. As a result, the projection here is now that the Montverde Academy alum will have BYU in the NCAA Tournament, expanded as it is, for the fourth time in four years.

Wright should be BYU's best player -- but if he isn't, keep an eye on Bruce Branch III. He's a 6-7 forward ranked sixth in the Class of 2026, according to 247Sports. The trio of Wright, Kentucky transfer Collin Chandler and Branch creates a high ceiling for the Cougars.

7. Baylor

Breakdown: Scott Drew leading the Bears to the national championship in 2021 is the thing that pushed his career from amazing to hall-of-fame worthy. Nobody has ever taken any program from that far down to that far up. It's movie-worthy. But, undeniably, last season was rough. Baylor played 18 conference games and lost 12 of them. Consequently, the Bears missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.

But the projection here is that the Bears will be back in the best bracket come March, in part because of the enrollment of Dylan Mingo, a five-star combo guard from the Class of 2026 who initially committed to North Carolina but pulled back after the school fired Hubert Davis. Also; keep an eye on Isaac Celiscar . The 6-6 forward averaged 13.2 points and 6.3 rebounds last season for Yale , a team coached by James Jones , the four-time Ivy League Coach of the Year.

8. Cincinnati

Breakdown: Bringing an alum back to guide a college basketball program is, like anything else, a hit-or-miss proposition. Sometimes it's awesome like Jon Scheyer at Duke . Other times it's less awesome like Patrick Ewing at Georgetown . Jerrod Calhoun is the latest to take a shot. He graduated from Cincinnati in 2004 and quickly embarked on a coaching career that's taken him ever

_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/big-12-basketball-predictions-order-of-finish-kansas-arizona-houston/)._