Early NFL Playoff Predictions: Week 4 Projections Reveal Surprise NFC Top Seed

There were quite a few upsets around the NFL in Week 3, and all of a sudden, it's starting to look like there could be some unexpected playoff contenders this year.

To figure out who those contenders might be, we had our analytics expert, Stephen Oh, simulate the rest of the 2026 season. There are 224 games left on the regular-season schedule along with 13 playoffs games, and Oh simulated them all.

Not only did he project the 14 teams that will end up making the playoffs, but he also crowned a Super Bowl champion. This week's projection includes several surprises, including a huge one in the NFC, where we have an unexpected team earning the No. 1 overall seed in the conference.

With that in mind, let's get to the projections. And just as a reminder, we're projecting what the NFL playoff field will look like at the end of the season. This is NOT the current playoff standings.

Projected AFC playoff field

If our projection is right in the AFC, that means we're going to have three new division champions this year. The only team being projected to repeat as champion is the Jacksonville Jaguars. Winning back-to-back titles would be huge for a Jaguars team that hasn't won consecutive division titles since 1998-99. That was so long ago that the AFC South didn't even exist (The Jags won the AFC Central title in those two seasons).

Here's the projected AFC playoff field:  1. Chiefs (3-0) --  AFC West champion 2. Bills (3-0) --  AFC East champion 3. Ravens (2-1) --  AFC North champion 4. Jaguars (2-1) -- AFC South champion 5. Broncos (2-1) 6. Bengals (2-1) 7. Colts (1-2)

One thing you'll notice is that we don't have any 0-3 teams in our playoff field, and that's mainly because it's nearly impossible for an 0-3 team to get in the postseason. The 0-3 Texans and 0-3 Chargers were both viewed as preseason playoff contenders this year, but at this point, it seems unlikely that we'll see either of them in the postseason. Since 2000, only two teams have made the playoffs after starting 0-3 (2018 Texans, 2025 Texans), so maybe the Texans are actually right where they want to be, but probably not.

Projected NFC playoff field

In the NFC, the computer gave us a huge surprise with the MINNESOTA VIKINGS earning the No. 1 overall seed. They say that defense wins championships and the computer is clearly buying into that theory, because the Vikings have one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Here's the projected NFC playoff field:  1. Vikings (3-0) --  NFC North champion 2. Seahawks (2-1) --  NFC West champion 3. Eagles (2-1) --  NFC East champion 4. Panthers (1-2) --  NFC South champion 5. 49ers (3-0) 6. Lions (2-1) 7. Bears (2-1)

Outside of the Vikings, the biggest shock here is probably the fact that our projection has the RAMS missing the playoffs. Our computer has them finishing with the seventh-best record in the NFC, but unfortunately for the Rams, that won't be good enough because the NFC South exists. The Panthers are being projected to win that division with a 7-10 record. As a division winner, they'd get a playoff spot over the Rams despite only having seven wins.

Now that we know who's in the playoffs, let's see who's going to make it to Super Bowl LXI.

Wild card round

AFC

- (2) Bills 32-26 over (7) Colts. When you force a dome team to play outdoors in the winter, bad things usually happen and that's the case here with the Bills taking down the Colts in what would be the first playoff game ever at Buffalo's new stadium. - (3) Ravens 27-26 over (6) Bengals. If this game happens, that means the Bengals and Ravens would be facing each other for the second time in three weeks after facing off in Week 17. That Dec. 31 game is being played in Cincinnati, but the computer has this one in Baltimore and that's one reason why the Ravens are being projected to advance here. - (4) Jaguars 23-19 over (5) Broncos. These two teams actually faced each other in Week 2 with the Broncos winning, but that game was played in Denver. In this rematch, the Broncos will have to head to Jacksonville and our projection has the Jags winning a tight one.

NFC

- (2) Seahawks 26-23 over (7) Bears. This game would be must-see TV with a defensive mastermind in Mike Macdonald trying to figure out a way to slow down Ben Johnson's high-powered offense. The Seahawks are 10-1 in home playoff games over the past 20 years, and with this game in Seattle, the computer likes them to take this. - (3) Eagles 25-23 over (6) Lions. The Lions have never won a road playoff game (0-12) in the Super Bowl era and that drought continues here. - (5) 49ers 27-23 over (4) Panthers. Not every home team is going to win in the wild card round. After sneaking into the postseason with the worst winning percentage any playoff team ever (.412), our projection as the 7-10 Panthers losing in the opening round.

And now, we're down to our final eight teams.

Divisional round

AFC

- (1) Chiefs 23-21 over (4) Jaguars. The Chiefs have won 12 straight playoff games at home and that streak continues here with a tight win over the Jaguars. - (2) Bills 28-26 over (3) Ravens. These two teams met two years ago in the 2024 divisional round, and in that game, Josh Allen got the best of Lamar Jackson. This time around, the computer has Allen once again outplaying the Ravens' star.

NFC

- (2) Seahawks 23-20 over (3) Eagles. This would be a matchup of the past two teams to win the Super Bowl and the Seahawks keep their hopes of repeat alive by beating the Eagles here. - (1) Vikings 23-20 over (5) 49ers. The Vikings' defense will get its biggest test of the season with a trip to the NFC title game on the line. Brian Flores' defense doesn't completely shut down Kyle Shanahan's offense, but it does just enough for the Vikings to pull out the win.

If you're scoring at home, we are now down to four teams: Two teams that have never won a Super Bowl (Bills and Vikings), the team that won the Super Bowl last year (Seahawks), and the team that has won two of the past four Super Bowls (Chiefs).

Conference title games

AFC Championship

- (1) Chiefs 26-23 over (2) Bills. Josh Allen is 0-4 all time against the Chiefs in the playoffs, and at some point, he'll probably get that monkey off his back, but not here. The Chiefs are nearly unbeatable in home playoff games and they continue their mastery over Buffalo with a tight win the AFC Championship.

NFC Championship

- (1) Vikings 21-19 over (2) Seahawks. Beginning in 1977, the Vikings have played in six NFC title games and they've lost them all, but the drought finally ends here. The Vikings steal Seattle's strategy from last season by riding a tough defense and a free agent quarterback all the way to the Super Bowl. That's right, we have the Vikings in the Super Bowl!

Super Bowl LXI at SoFi Stadium

- (1) Chiefs 21-20 over (1) Vikings. These two teams faced off in Super Bowl IV, and 57 years later, our projection model has them playing each other in a rematch. If this game happens, you can bet that Vikings fans will be taking over Los Angeles. The Vikings are 0-4 all time in the Super Bowl and this fan base is desperate to finally see their team win a Lombardi Trophy. The Vikings played in four of the first 11 Super Bowls, but they haven't been back to the big game since Super Bowl XI, so this would mark the 50th anniversary of their last trip. On the Chiefs' end, this could end up being Travis Kelce's final game, so you can bet that the spotlight would be shining brightly on Kelce and Taylor Swift in the lead-up to the game. In the end, our projection has Patrick Mahomes picking up his fourth Super Bowl ring with the Chiefs edging the Vikings in a wild game.

We've been doing a projection every week since the start of the season and here's a look at what the projected Super Bowl has been each week.

- Preseason prediction: Rams over Ravens - After Week 1: Seahawks over Ravens - After Week 2: Seahawks over Chiefs - After Week 3: Chiefs over Vikings

Right now, the Chiefs are on top, but that could certainly change this week, especially with Kansas City getting ready for a showdown against the 3-0 Raiders in Week 4.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/predicting-14-team-nfl-playoff-bracket-surprise-no-1-seed-in-nfc/)._