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Grammy Album of the Year: Olivia Rodrigo vs. Olivia Dean in Tight Race

While new music from stars like Taylor Swift, Bruno Mars, and Harry Styles made waves this awards season, the Grammy for Album of the Year is predicted to be a close contest between Olivia Rodrigo and Olivia Dean.

Hollywood Reporter Music·Oct 7, 2026·via Hollywood Reporter Music

Grammy Album of the Year: Olivia Rodrigo vs. Olivia Dean in Tight Race

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Grammy Predictions: It’s a Race Between Olivia and Olivia

This awards season has brought new music from such heavy hitters as Taylor Swift, Bruno Mars and Harry Styles. But the album of the year race may come down to the two Olivias: Dean and Rodrigo

By Alan Light

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As Grammy season comes into full swing, one of the biggest questions the Recording Academy will need to wrestle with is how to handle the current surge in popularity for country music. In September, for the first time ever, the top five slots on the singles chart were all held by country songs — most notably, Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas,” which recently broke the record for longest stay at No. 1. Langley seems an obvious lock for best new artist, but the academy has steered clear of Nashville when it comes to the big awards; the only “mainstream” country releases ever to win album of the year were Swift’s 2010 Fearless and Glen Campbell’s By the Time I Get to Phoenix in 1968. (Kacey Musgraves’ Golden Hour won in 2019, though that’s more of an alternative country album than a traditional country radio-friendly project.)

Meanwhile, Morgan Wallen (whose Still the Problem Tour just became the highest-grossing country tour in history) continues to boycott the Grammys, as does Drake, whose three 2026 albums and summer anthem “Janice STFU” may otherwise have been in awards contention. Adding to this ongoing mess, BTS opted not to submit their album Arirang , protesting the addition of a new K-pop category, which they believe will hinder Korean artists’ chances for consideration for the general pop awards.

So with all of those options either off the table or looking at diminished expectations, that brings us to Olivia Rodrigo and Olivia Dean . Both previous best new artist winners, both beloved across multiple genres, they’re clearly the acts in pole position in a year when it’s unlikely that any one artist is going to dominate the ceremonies.

Rodrigo’s New Wave-inflected You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love tips toward younger fans and garners more of a rock following, while Dean’s The Art of Loving leans R&B with a more mature audience. Rodrigo’s album, released in June, could benefit from recency bias, coupled with the buzz around her Daisy Chain Fields Music Festival, but Dean has a case for longevity, still parked in the top 10 after a full year.

Both are sure things for album of the year nods, with a possible slight edge to You Seem Pretty Sad , constructed as more of a top-to-bottom “album” chronicling the beginning, middle and end of a relationship. Elsewhere in the category, British soulstress Raye’s This Music May Contain Hope wasn’t the same commercial smash, though she’s still the kind of ambitious, old-school artist that Grammy voters like — as is Noah Kahan, whose The Great Divide will get the recognition that his powerhouse Stick Season was denied.

Even if Swift’s Showgirl and Bruno Mars’ The Romantic haven’t gotten the same reception as their best loved works, they still seem too big to fail and likely will get nominated. If any “legacy” artists make the cut, signs point to Madonna — whose Confessions II was widely lauded as her strongest effort in 20 years, a more compelling story than steady new albums from Paul McCartney and The Rolling Stones.

At the cool kids table, Rosalía’s jaw-dropping Lux was a (deserving) critical favorite and, following last year’s win for Bad Bunny’s Debí Tirar Más Fotos , it would be a bad look not to include a Spanish-language artist. From the indie rock world, Phoebe Bridgers’ Lost Weekend is her acclaimed solo return after 2023’s seven-times-nominated, three-time Grammy-winning boygenius album The Record .

It was a quiet year for hip-hop, so while J. Cole’s “farewell album” The Fall-Off and Don Toliver’s Octane are remote possibilities to sneak into a nomination slot, for the Grammys, it increasingly feels like Kendrick Lamar or nothing. Musgraves’ Middle of Nowhere was considered a return to form, but if voters lean into a country project, it’s hard to imagine anything other than Langley’s Dandelion getting the nod this year.

Which leaves Styles as the odd man out. If the sin of Mars’ album was being too predictable, Styles’ bold and unexpected Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally was tougher for fans and, likely, for Grammy voters; the album sunk rapidly on the charts and (despite the support that led to Harry’s House winning the album prize in 2023 over Adele, Beyoncé and Lamar) could come up short this time.

Both Olivias also will feature in the record and song of the year categories, with Ms. Dean’s breezy, omnipresent “Man I Need” a favorite. It’s not clear which songs Rodrigo will submit where — maybe “Drop Dead” goes stronger as a recording and “The Cure” is a better fit for the songwriters’ award, but we shall see.

Raye’s irrepressible “Where Is My Husband!” is a clear record of the year contender, and “Choosin’ Texas” feels certain to make it to the finals. Kahan’s title track, Tame Impala and Jennie’s collaboration “Vampire” and Mars’ “I Just Might” are in the running, and Sienna Spiro’s “Die on This Hill” has made her the latest U.K. pop-soul crossover (in the tradition of Amy Winehouse, Adele, etc.), a sound that consistently plays into Grammy voters’ tastes.

Song of the year will offer most of the same names as the record of the year picks, though here Dean might switch her entry to “So Easy (To Fall in Love),” co-written by Grammy favorite Amy Allen. Longer shots include Styles’ “Aperture,” PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson’s “Stateside” and Brandi Carlile’s battle cry for the U.S. Constitution, “Church and State.”

Then of course there’s T-Swift, who despite her legendary legacy has never won for record or song of the year. “The Fate of Ophelia” was a huge hit, spending 12 weeks at No. 1. But “I Knew It, I Knew You,” from the Toy Story 5 soundtrack, marked her return to country radio and might read as more of a “songwriter” song; when she recently did a rare interview event with Grammy CEO Harvey Mason Jr., it was the one Grammy-eligible song she performed.

The smart money says that she splits the difference, putting “The Fate of Ophelia” up for record and saving “I Knew It, I Knew You” for song.

Overall, her focus seems set on winning an Oscar for “I Knew It, I Knew You,” which seems inevitable. In a year when there’s a strong chance four different women will carry away the Big Four trophies, Swift will have positioned herself to wind up, once again, as Music’s Biggest Story.

This story appeared in the Oct. 7 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe .

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Grammy Album of the Year: Olivia Rodrigo vs. Olivia Dean in Tight Race

Grammy Predictions: It’s a Race Between Olivia and Olivia

Alan Light

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