NFL Week 4: Patriots vs. Bills Betting Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Quarterback Drake Maye and the New England Patriots  need to get something going in NFL Week 4, but it won't be easy to do that Sunday as they visit New Highmark Stadium for an important AFC East battle with the Buffalo Bills . Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Patriots vs. Bills odds at DraftKings Sportsbook list Buffalo as a 7-point favorite, and the Over/Under for total points is set at 49.5. Bet $5+ on Patriots-Bills in NFL Week 4 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets:

We're digging into the Patriots vs. Bills odds at DraftKings Sportsbook , and the SportsLine Projection Model and our NFL experts have crunched the numbers, so we're revealing our best bets here for this AFC East battle. The model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on  betting sites  on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. It entered Week 4 of the 2026 NFL season on a 54-43 run on top-rated picks dating to 2024. Anybody following its picks at  NFL betting sites  could have seen strong returns.

Patriots vs. Bills betting odds (via DraftKings)

Patriots vs. Bills money line: Patriots +260, Bills -325 Patriots vs. Bills Over/Under: 49.5 (Over -108, Under -112) Patriots vs. Bills spread:  Bills -7

Patriots vs. Bills betting preview

The Bills have been cruising, and their new home has been good to them so far. This is their third straight game at New Highmark, and they have scored 65 points over the first two. They have allowed 47, and the matchup in Houston was a 36-31 shootout, so the defense has some questions, but Allen has had the answers so far. The 30-year-old is angling for a second MVP award after earning it in 2024, as he has 786 passing yards (ninth in NFL), with five TDs and two interceptions. But he also has 114 yards on the ground and has added six rushing TDs to his NFL record for a quarterback, as he now has 85 for his career. His backfield mate James Cook III is third in the NFL in rushing yards with 346. The Bills' offense ranks fourth in the NFL in both total yards (401.7) and rushing yards per game (155.0). The passing offense is ninth (246.7), and Allen has spread the ball around. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has been a star, leading the team with 263 receiving yards, and DJ Moore (167) and Keon Coleman (101) are both over 100 receiving yards through three games. Josh Palmer has two catches -- a 43-yard TD and a 34-yard score. The defense has had its issues, allowing 361.3 total yards per game (25th in NFL) and 254.3 through the air (27th), and the Bills allow 26 points per game (20th). They are minus-2 in turnover differential, but the Patriots are minus-5 and tied for the NFL lead with eight giveaways.   Bet $5+ on Patriots-Bills in NFL Week 4 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets:

The New England defense has done its part as Maye and the offense have struggled. The unit is fifth in the NFL in total defense (278.3 yards per game) and allows just 17 points per contest. New England has seven sacks, led by linebackers Elijah Ponder and Gabe Jacas with 1.5 each. It has three takeaways but hasn't been able to overcome its own offense's mistakes. Maye has been under duress and missing his confidence, as he has just one touchdown against six interceptions and has been sacked nine times. He has had trouble finding a reliable receiving option since newcomer AJ Brown went down with an ankle injury, as no Pats receiver has scored yet. Tight end Eli Raridon has the only receiving touchdown so far. Mack Hollins and Romeo Doubs have combined for 18 receptions for 301 yards, and tight end Hunter Henry is averaging 10 yards on his seven catches. The Patriots have talent in the backfield but are 14th in rushing at 109.7 yards per game. Rhamondre Stevenson has 116 rushing yards and 63 receiving yards, with Hollins the only Patriot with more than Stevenson's nine receptions. TreVeyon Henderson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and has 99 rushing yards and a TD in two games.

The road team won each meeting last season, with the Patriots taking a 23-20 victory at the old Highmark and Buffalo winning a 36-31 shootout in their most recent meeting in Foxborough last December. The Bills erased a 21-0 first-half deficit with five straight touchdowns as they halted the Patriots' 10-game win streak in that one. The Bills are 9-4 against New England in this decade, but three of those victories have come in the past three seasons. The Bills are 11-9 against the spread in their past 20 regular-season games and were 3-3 ATS in division games last season. They are 6-3 to the Over as a home favorite since the start of last season and 10-8 ATS as a favorite over that span. New England is 12-6-2 against the spread since last season began, including 4-4-1 ATS as an underdog,  Wager on NFL Week 4 games with the BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS to get up to $1,500 in bonus bets:

Patriots vs. Bills picks, prediction

Bills -6.5

The SportsLine Projection Model , which simulates every game 10,000 times, doesn't have a strong play on the game, but it does have Buffalo covering the spread in 51% of its simulations, and SportsLine NFL expert R.J. White likes the play on Buffalo. Maye's offensive line has let him down, and while the Bills victory last week wasn't pretty, the expert doesn't expect those issues to linger. He doesn't feel as confident about the Patriots after their sloppy loss. "I don't see the Bills' issues sticking around, but I have serious concerns about this Patriots team," White says. "Maybe the Patriots' defense bounces back and keeps the Bills within margin, but I'll trust Josh Allen to build a multiple-score lead that Maye won't be able to overcome."  Bet $5+ on Patriots-Bills in Week 4 with the latest DraftKings promo code and get $150 in bonus bets:

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/patriots-vs-bills-odds-picks-prediction-spread-nfl-week-4-start-time-betting-preview-and-best-bets/)._