Penix Jr. Sparks Falcons Offense: Can Recent Scoring Surge Be Maintained?

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Atlanta Falcons were the worst offense in the NFL . They scored just 16 total points and did not enter the red zone even once during those two games. Over the last two weeks, the Falcons have led the NFL with 80 total points. They dropped 35 on the Green Bay Packers on "Thursday Night Football" and 45 on the New Orleans Saints on "Monday Night Football."

Atlanta's Bijan Robinson-led run game has exploded in those two contests, totaling 447 yards on the ground. Robinson and No. 2 back Brian Robinson tagged the Packers for 242 yards and the Saints for 205. They also ran pretty well in the first two games (120 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers and 157 against the Carolina Panthers ), but it's been an entirely different level in Weeks 3 and 4.

However, the main difference between the first two games and the latter two: The Falcons replaced backup quarterback Cooper Rush with starter Michael Penix Jr . starting in Week 3. Rush was dreadful in the first two games, while Penix has largely played well through his two starts. Through four weeks of the season, there are 41 quarterbacks who have thrown at least 30 passes, according to Tru Media. Rush ranks 41st among that group in expected points added (EPA) per dropback, while Penix checks in fifth.

Needless to say, Penix has completely rejuvenated the Falcons' offense. It's worth investigating what he has brought to the offensive attack that Rush couldn't.

How Penix has changed the offense

Let's start with what's been the same. Penix and Rush have both gotten the ball out extremely quickly. Rush's average time to throw, per Tru Media, was 2.53 seconds, which was fourth-quickest among the aforementioned 41 passers. Penix is getting the ball out even faster, at 2.36 seconds, which is the fastest in the league to date.

A lot of that is because both players have thrown many screens. Rush was 7-of-8 on screens through his two starts, while Penix is 8-of-9. That means screens accounted for 20.5% of Rush's pass attempts and 20% of Penix's. Through the first four weeks of the year, Rush and Penix rank first and second among the 41 qualified quarterbacks for passes that were thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage. They're both being schemed for easy completions.

The difference is that Penix has actually opened up some of the stuff farther down the field. Just 23% of Rush's passes traveled more than 10 yards in the air, per Tru Media. That number is 31.1% for Penix. Rush went only 3-of-9 for 56 yards on those pass attempts, while Penix is 9-of-14 for 276 yards and a touchdown.

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Penix has also shown an ability to hit the wide sides of the ball that Rush couldn't access. On throws more than 5 air yards outside the numbers, Rush was just 3-of-5 for 55 yards, per Tru Media. Penix is already 9-of-13 for 213 yards and a score. He's connected repeatedly with Drake London on these types of plays, whether on sail routes, double moves or go balls. It's allowed London to run into open space or use his big body to box out the defensive back and make a play downfield.

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How Penix has helped rushing attack, play action

Being able to make these types of throws also helps the run game, as teams are less willing to devote extra men to the box to stop the rushing attack. Atlanta's rushing success rate with seven or more defenders in the box was just 27% through the first two weeks of the season, third-worst in the league, per Tru Media. In Weeks 3 and 4, that figure spiked to 63.6%, the highest in the NFL.

Perhaps because of that, the Falcons have utilized play action far more often with Penix (20 dropbacks) than Rush (5). Penix is 13-of-20 for 259 yards and a touchdown on those plays, and two of the incompletions were drops. He's thrown deep 15% of the time and created eight 10-plus-yard completions and seven of 20-plus yards. It's been highly effective.

Can Penix continue his hot start?

The question, of course, is whether this can keep up. And that's definitely a question.

Penix was tasked with making a lot of the same types of throws during his first two seasons, but he was much less effective. He completed only 59.6% of his passes at an average of 7.2 yards per attempt. He got the ball out quickly and often threw to the sidelines and the intermediate-to-deep areas of the field, but he was off target quite often. That's been less true so far this season, but he's had the good fortune of playing against a couple of friendly defenses.

The Falcons' schedule does include a few games against high-quality defenses through the rest of the year (most notably the Vikings in Week 12), but it's not overly imposing. Penix might have a chance to keep this up, particularly if his accuracy improvement on intermediate and deep passes sticks. If that's just a two-week blip, though (which is certainly possible given the very small sample size and the level of competition), then some regression could be in store for this Atlanta offense.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/michael-penix-jr-has-completely-revived-the-falcons-offense/)._