SportsLine Model Reveals Best Bets for Alabama vs. Mississippi State Week 5 Game

No. 7 Alabama continued its dominant run with a 49-18 win against South Carolina in Week 4, with sophomore quarterback Keelon Russell throwing for 365 yards. The Crimson Tide (4-0, 2-0 SEC) now head to Starkville for a marquee clash against another unbeaten in Mississippi State. The Bulldogs (4-0, 2-0 SEC) are ranked No. 16 nationally and have been impressive in their own right, most recently holding off Missouri 31-24 last week behind sophomore quarterback Kamario Taylor, setting up a potential top-20 collision at Davis Wade Stadium that could have significant SEC West.  Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $25 bonus after depositing $10 :

Kickoff is set for noon ET at Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville, Mississippi. Alabama is the 5-point favorite in the latest Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds, while the over/under is 60.5 points. Before making any Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks,  check out the Alabama vs. Mississippi State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model .

Alabama vs. Mississippi State odds

Alabama vs. Mississippi State spread

Alabama -5

Alabama vs. Mississippi State over/under

60.5 points

Alabama vs. Mississippi State money line

Alabama -196, Mississippi State +180

Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks

See picks at SportsLine

Alabama vs. Mississippi State streaming

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Top Alabama vs. Mississippi State predictions

After simulating Alabama vs. Mississippi State  10,000 times, SportsLine model is going Over 60.5 points at  betting apps .  These teams have been lighting up the scoreboard at a faster pace than oddsmakers have expected this year. A combined seven of their eight games have cleared the total. The one exception was Mississippi State's game against Missouri last week, which fell just 3.5 points shy of the total.

In total, Alabama is averaging 48 points per game, which ranks third in the SEC, while MSU is fourth in the conference at 43. Both teams are giving up more than 20 points per game as well, so all the ingredients are here for this game to climb into the 60s or beyond. SportsLine's model is projecting 66 points as the Over hits 66% of the time.  See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine .

How to make Alabama vs. Mississippi State picks

In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time.  You can only get the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Alabama vs. Mississippi State, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that's on a 34-25 run on top-rated CFB picks , and find out.

Why you should trust SportsLine's model

The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It enters Week 5 on a 32-24 run on all top-rated college football picks at  betting sites , returning nearly $600 for $100 players. Anybody following its picks on college football betting sites could have seen strong returns.

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_Originally reported by [CBS Sports](https://www.cbssports.com/betting/news/alabama-mississippi-state-prediction-odds-time-2026-week-5-college-football-picks/)._